Statistics | Online Assignment Help

I have one question to solve before tomorrow 10am Houston 11/1/2018, Tx time, lease. make sure you can solve before you ask, thank you.

1) The Sanhedrin (court of law in ancient Israel) consisted of 23 judges and had the following rule for determining guilt: If, during a trial, a majority of the judges voted to convict, then the suspect was convicted, except if the decision to convict was unanimous (23-0), in which case the suspect was set free. The reason for this exception was to reduce the possibility of the judges acting out of bias and unfairly ignoring arguments in defense of the accused. Let B denote the hypothesis “The court is unfairly biased.” and assume that if B is true all the judges will certainly vote to convict. Assume that before a particular trial begins you assign equal probability to the suspect being guilty or innocent, and further assume that, if B is not true, you assign each judge independently a 75% probability of correctly determining guilt or innocence, and that this suspect is unanimously found guilty. Assuming a prior probability for B equal to 1%, what is your posterior probability for B?