A mouse is put into a T-maze. In this maze, he has the choice of turning to the left and being rewarded with cheese or turning to the right and receiving a mild shock. Before any conditioning takes place, the mouse is equally likely to go to the left or to the right.
After the first trial, his decision is influenced by what happened on the previous trial. If he receives cheese on any trial, the probabilities of him going to the left or right become 0.89 and 0.11, respectively, on the following trial. If he receives the electric shock on any trial, the probabilities of him going to the left or right on the next trial become 0.67 and 0.33, respectively. What is the probability of the mouse turning left on the second trial?
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