State Nature Decision Assignment | Homework For You

Problem 13-19 (Algorithmic) Hale’s TV Productions is considering producing a pilot for a comedy series in the hope f selling it to a major television network. The network may decide to reject the series, but it may also decide to purchase the rights to the series for either one or two years. At this point in time, Hale may either produce the pilot and wait for the network’s decision transfer the rights for the pilot and series to competitor for $300,000. Hale’s decision alternatives and profits (in thousands of dollars) are as follows:

State Nature Decision Reject, 1 Year, 2 Years, Alternative S1 S2 S3 Produce pilot, di -250 300 350 Sell to competitor, 300 300 300 dz The probabilities for the states of nature are P(S1) 0.20, P(S2) 0.300, and P(S3)0.50. For a consulting fee of $30,000, an agency will review the plans for the comedy series and indicate the overall chances of favorable network reaction to the series. Assume that the agency review will result in a favorable (F or an unfavorable (U) review and that the following probabilities are relevant: P(F) 0.63 P(S1F) 0.05 P(S1U) 0.46 P(S2IF)= 0.24 P(U) 0.37 P(S2U) 0.32 P(S3 F) 0.71 P(S3U) 0.22

b. What is the recommended decision if the agency opinion is not used? What is the expected value? Enter your answer in thousands of dollars. Recommended decision Sell 300 thousands. Expected Value $

c. What is the expected value of perfect information? Enter your answer in thousands of dollars. EVPI $ 25 thousands.

d. What is Hale’s optimal decision strategy assuming the agency’s information is used? If Favorable Produce If Unfavorable Sell

e. What is the expected value of the agency’s information? Round your answer to two decimal places. Enter your answer in thousands of dollars. EVSI $ thousands.

f. Is the agency’s information worth the $30,000 fee? What the maximum that Hale should be willing to pay for the information? Decision No Hale should pay no more than $ thousands. Round your answer to two decimal places. Enter your answer in thousands of dollars.

g. What is the recommended decision? No agency; sell the pilot. Get Finance homework help today