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Required Resources

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Read/review the following resources for this activity:

• Textbook: Chapter 9
• Lesson

Scenario/Summary

This week you will submit the second part of the course project. You completed Part I in Week 6 and will complete Part II this week.

Hypothesis Testing is the use of statistics to determine the probability that a given claim is true.

In Part II of this project, you will choose a data set, review claims and perform hypothesis testing and make a decision. You will then complete a write-up that includes the calculations.

The government logs the number of documented births, deaths, marriages and divorces; however, it is possible to have undocumented cases. In part II of this project, you are going to test claims about total births, deaths, marriages and divorces.

Deliverables

1. Choose a Data Set.
2. Go to https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/nvsr.htm(Links to an external site.)
3. In the search bar type: Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths

4. Pick a DataSet and download the PDF document and make note of the volume, number, and date. For example you could use the National Vital Statistics Reports,
5. Pick the same month/year combination for each data set. For example, choosing September of 2009.

6. Preliminary Calculations
7. Create a summary table for 1. Live Births, 2. Deaths, 3. Marriages, and 4. Divorces highlighting the mean, median, sample standard deviation, minimum and maximum valuesfor each the data sets. You will have FOUR tables using the list of values of each state, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico (You will have 52 numbers for each data set).
 Summary Table for _________ Mean Median Standard Deviation Minimum Maximum
1. Hypothesis Testing

With the information that you gather from the summary tables, test the following (you can use excel when appropriate):

1. Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of births is over 5000 in the United States and territories at the 0.05 level of significance.
2. Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of deaths is equal to 6000 in the United States and territories at the 0.10 level of significance.
3. Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of marriages is greater or equal to 2500 in the United States and territories at the .05 level of significance.
4. Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of divorces is less than or equal to 4000 in the United States and territories at the 0.10 level of significance.

For each of the tests above, in your report, be sure to—

1. Clearly state a null and alternative hypothesis
2. Give the value of the test statistic
3. Report the P-Value
4. Clearly state your conclusion (Reject the Null or Fail to Reject the Null)
5. Explain what your conclusion means in context of the data.

Lastly, propose and conduct your own test of hypothesis about the Birth, Death, Marriage and Divorce data that you have been analyzing. Make sure to follow the five steps above.

Required Software

Microsoft Office: Word and Excel

Use a personal copy or access the software at https://application.chamberlain.edu (Links to an external site.) .

This activity will be graded based on the Course Project grading rubric.

Course Outcomes (CO): 6

Due Date: Course Project Part II By 11:59 p.m. MT on Sunday of Week 7

Rubric

Week 7 Project: Part II

Week 7 Project: Part II

Criteria

Ratings

Pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart II: Choose a Data Set & Preliminary Data

 5.0 pts Proficient. Student computes all 4 Preliminary Data Values. 4.0 pts Above Average. Student computes all 3 Preliminary Data Values. 3.0 pts Average. Student computes all 2 Preliminary Data Values. 1.0 pts Needs Improvement. Student computes all 1 Preliminary Data Values. 0.0 pts No Effort. No Preliminary Data

5.0 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart II: Hypothesis Testing

 20.0 pts Proficient. Completes 4 Hypothesis Tests highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value. 16.0 pts Above Average. Completes 3 Hypothesis Tests highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value. 14.0 pts Average. Completes 2 Hypothesis Tests highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value. 10.0 pts Needs Improvement: Completes 1 Hypothesis Test highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value. 0.0 pts No Effort. No Hypothesis Tests were completed.

20.0 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart II: Hypothesis Testing Analysis

 10.0 pts Proficient. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for ALL 4 Problems. 8.0 pts Above Average. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for 3 Problems. 7.0 pts Average. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for 2 Problems. 5.0 pts Needs Improvement. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for 1 Problem 0.0 pts No Effort. No conclusion/explanations were given.

10.0 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart II: Proposal and computations for new hypothesis test

 10.0 pts Proficient. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, report p-value, conclusion and explanation. 8.0 pts Proficient. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets correclty and has MOST of the content: highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, report p-value, conclusion and explanation. 7.0 pts Average. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets and MISSING MOST of the content: highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, report p-value, conclusion and explanation. 5.0 pts Needs Improvement. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets but there are multiple mistakes and/or conclusions are not valid. 0.0 pts No Effort. The student did not propose/compute a new hypothesis test.

10.0 pts

Total Points: 45.0

For part 2 of the project, use the following critical values. These came from a table of T values with df = 51:

For a one-tailed test at the 0.05 level of significance, T= 1.675
For a one-tailed test at the 0.10 level of significance, T=1.298

For a two-tailed test at the 0.05 level of significance, T= 2.008
For a two-tailed test at the 0.10 level of significance, T=1.675

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