# Mgt 3332 forecasting case analysis

Don't use plagiarized sources. Get Your Assignment on
Mgt 3332 forecasting case analysis
Just from \$13/Page

Forecasting Case Analysis

The Fresh Detergent Case

Enterprise Industries produces Fresh, a brand of liquid detergent. In order to more effectively manage its inventory, the company would like to better predict demand for Fresh. To develop a prediction model, the company has gathered data concerning demand for Fresh over the last 33 sales periods. Each sales period is defined as one month. The variables are as follows:

Demand = Y = demand for a large size bottle of Fresh (in 100,000)

Price = the price of Fresh as offered by Ent. Industries

AIP = the average industry price

ADV = Ent. Industries Advertising Expenditure (in \$100,000) to Promote Fresh in the sales period.

DIFF = AIP – Price = the “price difference” in the sales period

2- Make time series scatter plots of all five variables (five separate graphs). Insert trend line, equation, and R-squared. Observe graphs and provide interpretation of results.

3- Construct scatter plots of Demand vs. DIFF and Demand vs. ADV, Demand vs. AIP, and Demand vs. Price. Insert fitted line, equation, and R-squared. Observe graphs and provide interpretation. Note that Demand is always on the Y axis.

4- Obtain the correlation matrix for all six variables and list the variables that have strong correlation with Demand. High correlation is r > 0.50. Explain your findings in plain language.

5- Use 3-month and 6-month moving averages to predict the demand for March 2019. Find MAD for both forecasts and identify the preferred one based on each calculation. Is the moving average suitable method for forecasting for this data set? Explain your reasoning.

6- Use Exponential smoothing forecasts with alpha of 0.1, 0.2, …, 0.9 to predict March 2019 demand. Identify the value of alpha that results in the lowest MAD.

7- Find the monthly seasonal indices for the demand values using Simple Average (SA) method. Find the de-seasonalized demand values by dividing monthly demand by corresponding seasonal indices.

8- Use regression to perform trend analysis on the de-seasonalized demand values. Is trend analysis suitable for this data? Find MAD and explain the Excel Regression output (trend equation, r, r-squared, goodness of model).

9- Find the seasonally adjusted trend forecasts for March through May 2019.

10- Perform simple linear regression analysis with ADV as the independent variable. Write the complete equation, find MAD and explain the Excel Regression output. Make sure to use the de-seasonalized demand data for this model and all future models.

11- Repeat part (10) with DIFF as the independent variable.

12- Construct multiple linear regression model with Period, AIP, DIFF, and ADV as independent variables. Formulate the equation, find MAD, and explain the output. Rank variables based on their degree of contribution to the model. Observe significant F, R-squared, and p-values and explain.

13- Perform multiple linear regression analysis with Period, DIFF, and ADV as independent variables. Formulate the equation and find MAD. Which variable is the most significant predictor of demand? Rank the independent variables based on their degree of contribution to the model. Observe significant F, R-squared, and p-values and explain.

14- Use the model obtained in parts 13 and make forecasts for the following months. Make sure to seasonalize final forecasts.

March    2019  \$6.10  \$6.50 \$10.3

April 2019  \$6.30  \$6.60 \$10.7

May    2019  \$6.50  \$7.10 \$11.1

15- Provide a brief case conclusion based on above analysis.

Calculate the price
Pages (550 words)
\$0.00
*Price with a welcome 15% discount applied.
Pro tip: If you want to save more money and pay the lowest price, you need to set a more extended deadline.
We know how difficult it is to be a student these days. That's why our prices are one of the most affordable on the market, and there are no hidden fees.

Instead, we offer bonuses, discounts, and free services to make your experience outstanding.
How it works
Receive a 100% original paper that will pass Turnitin from a top essay writing service
step 1
Fill out the order form and provide paper details. You can even attach screenshots or add additional instructions later. If something is not clear or missing, the writer will contact you for clarification.
Pro service tips
How to get the most out of your experience with Homework Writing Services
One writer throughout the entire course
If you like the writer, you can hire them again. Just copy & paste their ID on the order form ("Preferred Writer's ID" field). This way, your vocabulary will be uniform, and the writer will be aware of your needs.
The same paper from different writers
You can order essay or any other work from two different writers to choose the best one or give another version to a friend. This can be done through the add-on "Same paper from another writer."
Copy of sources used by the writer
Our college essay writers work with ScienceDirect and other databases. They can send you articles or materials used in PDF or through screenshots. Just tick the "Copy of sources" field on the order form.
Testimonials
See why 20k+ students have chosen us as their sole writing assistance provider
Check out the latest reviews and opinions submitted by real customers worldwide and make an informed decision.
Health Care
Thank you very much!
Customer 454001, February 8th, 2020
Good content. Journals do not require citations/references.
Customer 459947, May 29th, 2022
Professions and Applied Sciences
GOOD application.
Customer 462457, April 13th, 2022
Nursing
poor service
Customer 453627, January 24th, 2020
Beauty
Instructions met.
Customer 452441, May 3rd, 2022
Military
Good work.
Customer 456821, May 18th, 2022
SEO
good
Customer 463813, March 8th, 2023
Nursing
paper was not completed by due date
Customer 454371, May 25th, 2020
Other
GOOD WORK.
Customer 459155, May 31st, 2022
Excellent work!
Customer 463463, October 13th, 2022
Entertainment & Gaming
Good work.
Customer 452441, April 4th, 2022
Education
nice
Customer 463813, March 10th, 2023
11,595
Customer reviews in total
96%
Current satisfaction rate
3 pages
Average paper length
37%
Customers referred by a friend