In this assignment, you have two tasks. You will work independently on this assignment.
In the first task, you will analyse and forecast the amount of horizontal solar radiation reaching the ground at a particular location over the globe. For this aim, you will work on the monthly average horizontal solar radiation and the monthly precipitation series measured at the same points between January 1960 and December 2014. Both series are available here .Your task is to give best 2 years ahead forecasts in terms of MASE for the solar radiation series by using one of the time series regression methods (dLagM package), dynamic linear models (dynlm package), and exponential smoothing and corresponding state space models covered in the Modules 3 – 7 of our course in this semester. Hint: Use MASE() function from the dLagM package to compute MASE for time series regression methods for model comparisons.For the solar radiation forecasts, the required precipitation measurements (predictor series) for the months from January 2015 to December 2016 at the exact same locations are given in data.x.csv file. You will use this data for the calculation of 2 years ahead forecasts.
In the second task, you will analyse the correlation between quarterly Residential Property Price Index (PPI) in Melbourne and quarterlypopulation change over the previous quarter in Victoria between September 2003 and December 2016.
The quarterly PPI and populationchange series are available in data2.csv file.In this task, the main goal of your analysis is to demonstrate whether the correlation between these two series is spurious or not.In both tasks, it is expected that you ask yourself what are the elements of a suitable and successful data analysis, and how you might goabout presenting your results in a written report format. Please review the contents of the relevant modules and apply suitableapproaches here. The rubric given below will guide you through my expectations in terms of reporting, R codes, descriptive analysis,modelling, and diagnostic checking. Get Statistics homework help for you today