RESPOND TO DISCUSSION RESPONSE ACCORDINGLY (150 WORDS EACH)
KM1. I would opt for the experimental treatment. I chose this option knowing there is a 40% chance I die right away. Considering I only have 5 years to live if I do nothing I want the probability of the positive outcome to be greater than my current expected life time and it is; (0.6)(20)= 12years. Accounting for the 40% chance I die, I subtract the 5 years I would lose times the probability from 12 years. 12years – (0.4)(5) = 10years. Ten years is a lot longer than five years so I will take that chance.
KM2. We would be better off yet if we waited out the treatment a few more years. Say we live normally for another 3 years and then go in for the experimental treatment. That is if the 20 additional years are still valid and at a 60% probability after 3 years. Assuming our health doesn’t get worse and the treatment is still expected to add 20 years with a 60% chance of success, the chose is a no brainier at that point. Considering we have less than 2 years to live without it. So again positive outcome = (0.60)(20) = 12years. Negative outcome = (0.4)(2) = 0.8years. Therefore the net outcome is 12 – 0.8 = 11.2years and should be the figure used against the remaining 2 years when deciding.
SM3. We use the median to describe an entire set of observations with a single value representing the center of the data. Half of the observations are above the median, half are below it. It is determined by ranking the data and finding observation number [N + 1] / 2. If there are an even number of observations, the median is extrapolated as the value midway between that of observation numbers N / 2 and [N / 2] + 1.
TH4. There are a lot of if’s in the argument but then there were ifs in the original choice. There are a number of variables to be considered when making the choice. My question is the success and failure rate of the initial findings. Were they all the same age, gender, and health? Even with percentages to support the success and failure there are still a lot of other variables to take into account. As stated, the strides in medicine may provide additional options. More percentages to factor in. With almost every choice you have a different set of probabilities to look at that all factor into the original decision. What are my odds of being in a car crash while driving to the Dr.s office. You can put numbers on almost everything.
EH5. My wife was diagnosed with a form of cancer 12 years ago. Things are stable and she is fine. but when we first heard the diagnosis we were in shock. We asked the doctor, “How long does she have?” His astute answer was , “How well does she drive?”
You’re correct, though, that there are many variables that need to be considered. There is an aspect of statistics which deals with how well the sample population represents the target population. Age, gender, medical history, genetics, nationality — and the list goes on — could all influence the success or failure of a medical procedure.
SM6. Medical experiments as a whole is nothing but total risk. Participants will have to evaluate the negatives and the positives. But most of the time the positives out weigh the negatives like in this scenario. Weighing the 40% negative and the 60%
SM2 7. We use the median to describe an entire set of observations with a single value representing the center of the data. Half of the observations are above the median, half are below it. It is determined by ranking the data and finding observation number [N + 1] / 2. If there are an even number of observations, the median is extrapolated as the value midway between that of observation numbers N / 2 and [N / 2] + 1.
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