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Demand Forecasting | Online Assignment Help

HW 4 (Demand Forecasting)

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Prob. 1 (p. 200 of the Textbook)

Consider monthly demand for the ABC Corporation, as shown below. Forecast the monthly demand for Year 6 using the static method for forecasting. Discuss about the quality of the forecast for the Year 6, using the BIAS, MAD, and TS.

 

Sales Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
JAN 2000 3000 2000 5000 5000
FEB 3000 4000 5000 4000 2000
MAR 3000 3000 5000 4000 3000
APR 3000 5000 3000 2000 2000
MAY 4000 5000 4000 5000 7000
JUN 6000 8000 6000 7000 6000
JUL 7000 3000 7000 10000 8000
AUG 6000 8000 10000 14000 10000
SEP 10000 12000 15000 16000 20000
OCT 12000 12000 15000 16000 20000
NOV 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000
DEC 8000 10000 8000 12000 8000
Total 78000 89000 98000 115000 113000

 

(a) Find the seasonal index for each month.

(b) Forecast the monthly demand for Year 6. Use the following equation for the deseasonalized regression model :

Ft = 6,712.67 + 48.15 t

(c) Construct the TS control chart and discuss how good your forecast is.

 

Prob. 2 (TS Control Chart)

The tracking signals (TS) computed using past demand history for three different products are as follows. Each product used the same forecasting technique.

 

TS 1 TS 2 TS 3

Period 1 -2.70 1.54 0.10

Period 2 -2.32 -0.64 0.43

Period 3 -1.70 2.05 1.08

Period 4 -1.10 2.58 1.74

Period 5 -0.87 -0.95 1.94

Period 6 -0.05 -1.23 2.24

Period 7 0.10 0.75 2.96

Period 8 0.40 -1.59 3.02

Period 9 1.50 0.47 3.54

Period 10 2.20 2.74 3.75

Discuss the tracking signals for each product and what the implications are.

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