Demand Forecasting | Online Assignment Help
HW 4 (Demand Forecasting)
Prob. 1 (p. 200 of the Textbook)
Consider monthly demand for the ABC Corporation, as shown below. Forecast the monthly demand for Year 6 using the static method for forecasting. Discuss about the quality of the forecast for the Year 6, using the BIAS, MAD, and TS.
| Sales | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
| JAN | 2000 | 3000 | 2000 | 5000 | 5000 |
| FEB | 3000 | 4000 | 5000 | 4000 | 2000 |
| MAR | 3000 | 3000 | 5000 | 4000 | 3000 |
| APR | 3000 | 5000 | 3000 | 2000 | 2000 |
| MAY | 4000 | 5000 | 4000 | 5000 | 7000 |
| JUN | 6000 | 8000 | 6000 | 7000 | 6000 |
| JUL | 7000 | 3000 | 7000 | 10000 | 8000 |
| AUG | 6000 | 8000 | 10000 | 14000 | 10000 |
| SEP | 10000 | 12000 | 15000 | 16000 | 20000 |
| OCT | 12000 | 12000 | 15000 | 16000 | 20000 |
| NOV | 14000 | 16000 | 18000 | 20000 | 22000 |
| DEC | 8000 | 10000 | 8000 | 12000 | 8000 |
| Total | 78000 | 89000 | 98000 | 115000 | 113000 |
(a) Find the seasonal index for each month.
(b) Forecast the monthly demand for Year 6. Use the following equation for the deseasonalized regression model :
Ft = 6,712.67 + 48.15 t
(c) Construct the TS control chart and discuss how good your forecast is.
Prob. 2 (TS Control Chart)
The tracking signals (TS) computed using past demand history for three different products are as follows. Each product used the same forecasting technique.
TS 1 TS 2 TS 3
Period 1 -2.70 1.54 0.10
Period 2 -2.32 -0.64 0.43
Period 3 -1.70 2.05 1.08
Period 4 -1.10 2.58 1.74
Period 5 -0.87 -0.95 1.94
Period 6 -0.05 -1.23 2.24
Period 7 0.10 0.75 2.96
Period 8 0.40 -1.59 3.02
Period 9 1.50 0.47 3.54
Period 10 2.20 2.74 3.75
Discuss the tracking signals for each product and what the implications are.
