Bayesian Ralph Assignment | Homework For You

Bayesian Ralph

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Ralph’s production planning is facilitated by assessing general economic con- ditions. He judges it is equally likely the economy is favorable or unfavorable. Based on experience, Ralph believes demand for his products (gauged by rev- enues) is related to economic conditions.Homework For You

Part A In particular, revenues are normally distributed with mean 150 and standard deviation 10 when economic conditions are favorable and revenues are normally distributed with mean 100 and standard deviation 10 when economic conditions are unfavorable. That is, conditional density functions are $ (v | sau) – VEIO P [ * 7.509 ] slv I unfas) – VERIO [ 4 700 and Suggested:

Determine the posterior or updated probability the economy is in favorable condition given Ralph observes revenues equal to 127.

Note: Bayesian revision (as always) involves the ratio of the joint distribution of the signal and state to the marginal distribution of the signal.

That is, f(y= 127 fav) Pr (fav) Pr (fau y = 120 – Flor = 127 fau) Prav + f(y = 127 un fav) Pruna)

where the joint distribution of revenues and states is given by the following joint density function

f(4,5) = 277=10 exp – 17200)), s= fav 1210 exp (- 1 (47000, s= unfav. Get Economics homework help today

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