In this assignment you will analyze the 2016 Presidential Election results for Utah. Please see the Excel file Scatter Plot Assignment Data for results by county as well as each county’s population, ethnic makeup, unemployment, median income, and percent college educated.
Sources:
https://electionresults.utah.gov/elections/countyCount/300000http://www.npr.org/2016/11/08/501069078/utah-2016-presidential-and-state-election-results
Please answer the questions below.
1. Clinton vs Trump
a. What type of correlation would you expect between the percentage of votes received by Trump and the percentage of votes received by Clinton? (positive, negative, none) Choose Clinton as the independent variable.
b. Create a scatter plot of the ordered pairs with the x value as the percentage of votes received by Clinton and the y value as the percentage of votes received by Trump. Be sure to have axis labels and a title.
c. Add a trendline and display the equation and R2 value on the chart.
d. Find r and use the Pearson Correlation Coefficient table to determine whether r is significant at the 0.05 level.
e. Was your prediction in #1 correct?
2. Multiple Regression Clinton
a. Use multiple regression to analyze whether there is a correlation between the percentage of votes received by Clinton and population, ethnic makeup, unemployment, median income, and percent college educated. Which of these variables, if any, are correlated with the percentage of votes received by Clinton at the 0.05 level?
b. Use multiple regression to create an equation that can be used to predict the percentage of votes received by Clinton and the variables, if any, which part a showed are correlated with the percentage of votes received by Clinton. Do not include any variables that showed no correlation when you calculate the equation.
c. Are the correlation(s) positive or negative?
3. Multiple Regression Trump: Repeat #2 with Trump
4. Multiple Regression McMullin: Repeat #2 with McMullin
5. Multiple Regression Johnson: Repeat #2 with Johnson
6. Multiple Regression Stein: Repeat #2 with Stein
7. Using your answer to #3, predict the percentage of votes received by Trump in a county that is 87% White and 19% College Educated.
8. Can you use your answer to #2 to predict the percentage of votes received by Clinton in a county that is 30% White and 65% College Educated? Why not?
9. What did you learn from this assignment?