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by Phyllis T. H. Grummon, Ph. D. | Director, Planning and Education Society for College and University Planning

Demographics | Economics | Environment | Global Education | Learning | Politics | Technology

volume 6

The lack of a substantial increase in employment continues to affect higher education in the US and around the globe. Even the brightest economic predictions see only modest gains, and again the promise of ‘it’s never going back the way it was’. Some higher education givens erode—tenure for one. Some schools are so overwhelmed with students that little else can be done but cope. Distance education has proven more effective for students than face-to-face. Is online education mostly an expansion of access and not a zero sum game, as many have assumed? Our overriding question is whether the series of incremental changes we’ve seen in the last 15 or so years will finally cause a paradigm shift in the way higher education conceptualizes itself.

Note: Due to the time sensitive nature of some URLs, we cannot guarantee that all links will be active. Some links may require a subscription.

Demographics

Observation In the past, demographics were destiny for higher education—if birthrates increased, then enrollment could be predicted to increase 18 years later. The global market for education has done more than simply provide nuances to that predictability; it’s made global demographics and economics a driver everywhere.

people between 20 and 24 will drop by one-fourth in the next decade and by 2050 there will be only 2.1 working- age adults for each retiree (China Daily eClips, www.cdeclips.com/en/opinion/fullstory.html?id=28044).

Philadelphia Inquirer,

Globe and Mail, May 18, 2009, v1.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/

with an estimated value to receiving countries of US$60 billion (University World News, September 27, 2009, Issue

Our Thoughts The dominance of English-speaking tertiary providers, the US, Australia, and the UK, is no longer assured when students seek a portable, prestigious degree.

Inside HigherEd, October 6, 2009, www.insidehighered.com/news/2009/10/05/global).

The Guardian, October

significant number of them due to a serious visa backlog that has resulted in over 14,000 Pakistani students alone being barred (The Guardian, October 14, 2009, www.guardian.co.uk/global/2009/oct/14/overseas-students-fees-visas).

to the economic slowdown and a drop in aid from US colleges, it may be more permanent than some wish (The Economic Times,

Trends in Higher Education

52 April–June 2010 | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html

Observation The economy is likely to have a long-term effect on enrollments. The mix of students will remain in flux and differ among publics, privates, and for-profit institutions. The “job-less recovery” is predicted to continue for at least five years (The New York Times, October 2, 2009, www.nytimes.com/2009/10/03/business/ economy/03jobs.html?_r=1).

is likely to persist (Bloomberg.com, Inside HigherEd,

“Projections of Education Statistics to 2018”, www.edpubs.org).

two-thirds of students’ college choices, with more opting for public institutions and community colleges (The College Board and Art & Science Group, LLC, USA Today, March 25,

“Hindsight, Insight, Foresight: Understanding Adult Learning Trends to Predict Future Opportunities”,

Our Thoughts The message that higher education around the world has been sending for years—a degree means successful employment at higher pay—is clearly being played out. The students want to attend, but how will they pay for it?

Teachers College Record, most likely to be considered in deciding where to go to college, whether 2-year or 4-year were ‘affordable/financial’ and ‘location’ (Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, neces.ed.gov/das/).

adjusted for inflation (The New York Times, September 11, 2009, www.nytimes.com/2009/09/11/us/11poverty.html?sc

time enrollment increased only 5 percent. The total share of two-year colleges’ undergraduate enrollment rose to 41

this shift from 4-year to 2-year institutions is likely to continue increasing more quickly than originally predicted (National Center for Education Statistics,

Pew Research Center, October 29, 2009, pewsocialtrends.org).

Economics

Observation Students’ ability to find funding for college took many hits this fall, including the loss of state scholarship programs, lack of job options, and increased tuition.

reduced eligibility for state scholarship programs—some after students had already enrolled for the fall semester (The Miami Herald, The New York Times, USA Today, The Detroit Free Press, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, content/metro/stories/2009/04/26/georgia_scholarship_eliminated.html).

that there are no guarantees even for the thrifty (Stateline,

of students they are funding (The New York Times, June 27, 2009).

Trends in Higher Education

Planning for Higher Education | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html 53

Our Thoughts Students and parents are looking to institutions and lenders to help fill the gaps from state-sponsored programs. Changes in federal funding should help, but are unlikely to meet either need or the goals set by the administration.

the web and among strangers (The New York Times,

The Chicago Tribune, sns-yourmoney-086loans,0,0674248.story).

of institutions (USA Today,

certificate or bachelor’s programs (College Board, The

Project on Student Debt,

Observation Like the proverbial deer in the headlights, institutions around the world are coping with reduced funding and often using similar tactics for cost containment and revenue enhancement (University World News, July 5, 2009, www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20090703122659593).

Thirty-five states are assuming reduced fiscal resources will be available in 2010, while 42 states were forced to reduce their previously enacted 2009 budgets (National Governor’s Association, National Association of State Budget Officers,

The New York Times, July 18, 2009, nytimes.com/2009/07/18/

and even who pays for them (anyone who is willing to donate to support a course (The San Francisco Chronicle, June Inside Higher Ed, September

11, 2009, www.insidehighered.com/views/sloane/sloane29).

American Association of State Colleges and Universities; The Chronicle of Higher Education,

Our Thoughts The Higher Education Price Index (HEPI), as well as tuition, continues to outpace the Consumer Price Index (CPI), even though it dropped from 5 percent to 2.3 percent. Some are asking if higher education will be the next ‘bubble’ to burst (The Commonfund Institute, September 9, 2009, www.commonfund.org/Commonfund/ Archive/CF+Institute/2009+0909+HEPI+Press+Release.htm; The Chronicle of Higher Education, May 22, 2009, chronicle.com/weekly/v55/i37/37a05601.htm).

Virtually all the other components of the index had lower increases this fiscal year than last (The Commonfund Institute, elease.htm).

tuition and fees have risen by 440 percent—more than four times the rate of inflation and almost twice the rate of health care costs (The Chronicle of Higher Education,

National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities, June 29, 2009, www.

Environment

Observation China is now the world’s top emitter of greenhouse gases. The US and China now account for some 40 percent of the world’s emissions (The McKinsey Quarterly, M. Joerss, J. Woetzel, and H. Zhang, May 2009, “China’s Green Opportunity”; The New York Times, June 8, 2009, www.nytimes.com/2009/06/08/world/08treaty.html?_r =1&scp=2&sq=global+warming&st=nyt).

8 percent (Knowledge@Wharton,

China Daily eClips, html?id=14685).

(Knowledge@Wharton,

Our Thoughts Chinese leaders pronounce important green goals and policies, but it’s still a long way from seeing them implemented at the local level. They may want continued GDP (gross domestic product) growth of 8–9 percent, but it seems to come with skyrocketing pollution problems and an unwillingness to compromise with other countries.

terbium—that are vital to the manufacturing of hybrid cars, cell phones, large wind turbines, and computer monitors. It produces more than 99 percent of the world’s supply (The New York Times, September 1, 2009, www.nytimes.

creating toxic emissions that fall across the world. (The New York Times,

coal-fired plants being built without permits (Knowledge@Wharton, article.cfm?articleid=2254).

Observation Increasingly, technology is contributing to greenhouse gas emissions across the world. Research indicates that at a minimum, 2 percent of the global atmospheric carbon emissions can be traced to the information technology industry (Knowledge@Wharton, September 3, 2008, knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article. cfm?articleid=2040).

(EDUCAUSE Center for Applied Research,

has contributed to inefficiencies (The Chronicle of Higher Education, January 9, 2009, chronicle.com/free/v55/

Our Thoughts Unfortunately, on many campuses physical plant is in charge of energy use and IT has yet to be tapped for its ability to provide solutions that reduce energy consumption across a wide variety of venues.

Nature, September 10, 2009, v 461, p 154-55).

Trends in Higher Education

54 April–June 2010 | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html

Trends in Higher Education

Planning for Higher Education | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html 55

expected as the cost of energy rises with economic recovery (The McKinsey Quarterly,

Global Education

Observation China’s ability to rapidly expand its higher education system is bearing fruit, and could well accelerate, as its economy has suffered far less than others in the global economic downturn (China Daily eClips, November 5, 2009, www.cdeclips.com/en/nation/fullstory.html?id=33032).

close to the numbers found in the US and the European Union (University World News, December 14, 2008, universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20081212095956597).

Arab News,

and providing support for 5,000 of its best graduate students to study abroad (University World News, universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20090528175524756).

Our Thoughts China has invested in higher education for many of the same reasons all nations do. What effects are those investments likely to have on the world of tertiary education?

options (The New York Times,

The Chronicle of Higher Education,

to help universities teach Mandarin and collaborate on research within mainstream university programs (University World News,

Observation At the first United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) World Conference on Higher Education in 1998 there about 100 million students enrolled in postsecondary education around the world. At the conference held in July 2009, it was estimated that there are close to 150 million (Inside HigherEd, July 7, 2009, www.insidehighered.com/news/2009/07/07/unesco).

access, affordability, and quality—particularly for developing nations (UNESCO,

their state-supported institutions of higher education that is unlikely to be met by traditional face-to-face instruction (Inside HigherEd, July 7, 2009, www.insidehighered.com/news/2009/07/07/unesco).

quality and remains a concern of many higher education leaders (The Chronicle of Higher Education, July 9, 2009,

Our Thoughts While global tertiary education leaders focused on how to deliver opportunity across the world, rankings continue to drive investments in research, not in access (University World News, May 24, 2009, www. universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20090521174410568).

University World News,

Trends in Higher Education

56 April–June 2010 | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html

Institute of International Education,

(Newsweek,

Learning

Observation Research on the learning outcomes of online education has demonstrated that it’s at least the equivalent, if not better, than the outcomes of just face-to-face courses. Blended learning provides the greatest benefits of all (Center for Technology in Learning, B. Means, Y. Toyama, R. Murphy, M. Bakia, and K. Jones (2009), US Department of Education, Office of Planning, Evaluation, and Policy Development, Policy and Program Studies Service, www.ed.gov/rschstat/eval/tech/evidence-based-practices/finalreport.doc).

that online students spend engaging the course content and the instructor (Review of Educational Research,

District reinforces the finding that it’s the teacher that makes the difference, not necessarily the number of students (eSchool News, May 29, 2009, eschoolnews.com/news/top-news/index.cfm?i=58946).

Sloan Consortium,

Our Thoughts Ubiquitous learning is here. Students no longer have to show up in a bricks-and-mortar building to achieve their learning goals, they’ve become ‘free agents.’

Net Day Speak Up 2008, www. netdayspeakup.org/Speakup2008/) found that the largest digital disconnect is between what students are learning and living outside of school, and the technology they work with in school (T.H.E. Journal,

lang=en). eSchool News,

2009, eschoolnews.com/news/top-news/?i=58076).

an 18-week period scored significantly higher on district benchmark tests than the students in the control group (eSchool News,

Observation Students need to have increased involvement with the assessment of learning outcomes, particularly if institutions are serious about documenting the range of knowledge and skills that result from postsecondary education.

percent of the chief academic officers responding thought ‘all students’ understood the intended learning outcomes of Hart Research Associates,

lead to improved achievement, did not increase early dropout rates, and created a biased test that did not help females

Trends in Higher Education

Planning for Higher Education | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html 57

Hart Research Associates,

Our Thoughts E-portfolios offer an assessment option that can cut across formal, informal, and occupational learning. Allowing students to own their work makes e-portfolios more effective, but requires increased trust and valid rubrics.

course, contributes to difficulty in making them portable (Campus Technology, March 11, 2009, campustechnology.

only 42 percent reported using them as part of their assessment efforts (Hart Research Associates,

Inside HigherEd, March 5,

Politics

Observation The new administration has pushed for changes in higher education, from increased Pell Grant funding to direct student loans. Not everything has passed both houses of Congress, but the implications are already being anticipated.

software systems can effectively handle the changes (The Chronicle of Higher Education,

eSchool News, July 8, 2009, www.eschoolnews.com/news/top-news/index.cfm?i=59549).

the post-baccalaureate placement rate (Association for Institutional Research, March 2009, www.airweb.org/e-air/current/ Inside Higher Ed,

Our Thoughts The debate over health care legislation has stalled many of the administration’s educational initiatives. Although there is no resolution yet, it’s hard to see how health care changes won’t affect higher education students, faculty, and staff.

forward so far (The New York Times, September 14, 2009, nytimes.com/2009/09/14/health/policy/14nonprofit.html?_

More are requiring students to purchase reasonably expensive student health insurance through the school, regardless of other coverage (The Boston Globe, student_health_plans/).

time and money spent without the reward of reduced costs and higher quality of care (Federal Computer Week, 7, 2009, fcw.com/articles/2009/08/10/feat-is-the-nhin–ready-for-health-it-stimulus.aspx?sc_lang=en).

Trends in Higher Education

58 April–June 2010 | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html

Observation National, but not federal, standards for K-12 mathematics and English are being developed under the auspices of the Council of Chief State School Officers and the National Governors Association. Called the Common Core State Standards initiative, every state but Texas has agreed to participate (www.corestandards.org; Inside Higher Ed, September 21, 2009, insidehighered.com/news/2009/09/21/core).

Education Sector, June 2009,

educationsector.org).

not valid as campus-wide indicators of learning outcomes (Center for Studies in Higher Education, 2009, G. Thomson

be used to answer the questions most frequently posed by the public (Education Sector,

Our Thoughts States are competing for $4.35 billion in grant funding through the “Race to the Top” initiative for K-12 schools. In order to qualify, state legislatures have to pass reform bills that include expansion of charter schools and a mechanism for rewarding and retaining the best teachers (eSchool News, November 12, 2009, www.eschoolnews.com/news/top-news/index.cfm?i=61767).

education?

own standards for student success was maintained (Inside Higher Ed, May 20, 2009, www.insidehighered.com/ news/2009/05/20/accredit).

most people agree there is both not enough capacity nor a sufficient need for everyone to accomplish that goal (The Chronicle of Higher Education,

Technology

Observation IT security on campuses has continued to evolve, but it still faces many challenges, some external, but most internal.

The New York Times,

portable media (EDUCAUSE,

JMC Privacy Consulting Group,

Trends in Higher Education

Planning for Higher Education | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html 59

Our Thoughts The federal government has initiated a stronger stance on cyber-security, making it part of the national security system (“Cyberspace Policy Review”, May 2009, whitehouse.gov/assets/…/Cyberspace_Policy_Review_ final.pdf)

(Federal Computer Week, September 9, 2009, fcw.com/articles/2009/09/09/open-identity-groups-collaborate-with- federal-agencies.aspx?sc_lang=en)

campuses had suffered a security breach in the last year (eCampus News, June 11, 2009, www.ecampusnews.com/news/ top-news/?i=59161).

the help of higher level security programs, people on campus are the ones most likely to introduce viruses, botnets, and other alien programs into a campus’ system (EDUCAUSE,

eCampus News, EDUCAUSE Review, September/October 2009, J.

Observation Even in times of down budgets, campuses need to find a way to invest in technology, from supercomputer time to Internet connection speeds (The Chronicle of Higher Education, August 10, 2009, http://chronicle.com/ article/Your-College-Gets-a-Superco/47957/).

Campus Technology, 2009, p 42, campustechnology.com/articles/2009/08/01/trendspotter.aspx?sc_lang=en).

percent of executives expect a reduction (The McKinsey Quarterly,

executives (EDUCAUSE Review,

Our Thoughts Campus IT executives are now dealing with a range of issues that have gone far beyond the purchasing of computers for faculty and running the student data system. Their ability to effectively influence planning in an institution could be the most important task ahead in the ever-expanding portfolio of expectations for technology (EDUCAUSE Review, July/August, A. Agee and C. Yang, “Top-Ten IT Issues 2009, pp 45-58).

most of the rest of campus is facing decreases (eCampus News, May 19, 2009). th in the world (Yahoo Tech News,

The New York Times,

acceptance and expectation of e-book availability (The Chronicle of Higher Education, June 12, 2009, chronicle.com/ eSchool News, September 1, 2009, www.eschoolnews.com/news/top-news/?i=60446).

Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission.

Trends IN HIGHER EDUCATION

by Phyllis T. H. Grummon, Ph. D. | Director, Planning and Education Society for College and University Planning

Demographics | Economics | Environment | Global Education | Learning | Politics | Technology

volume 6

The lack of a substantial increase in employment continues to affect higher education in the US and around the globe. Even the brightest economic predictions see only modest gains, and again the promise of ‘it’s never going back the way it was’. Some higher education givens erode—tenure for one. Some schools are so overwhelmed with students that little else can be done but cope. Distance education has proven more effective for students than face-to-face. Is online education mostly an expansion of access and not a zero sum game, as many have assumed? Our overriding question is whether the series of incremental changes we’ve seen in the last 15 or so years will finally cause a paradigm shift in the way higher education conceptualizes itself.

Note: Due to the time sensitive nature of some URLs, we cannot guarantee that all links will be active. Some links may require a subscription.

Demographics

Observation In the past, demographics were destiny for higher education—if birthrates increased, then enrollment could be predicted to increase 18 years later. The global market for education has done more than simply provide nuances to that predictability; it’s made global demographics and economics a driver everywhere.

people between 20 and 24 will drop by one-fourth in the next decade and by 2050 there will be only 2.1 working- age adults for each retiree (China Daily eClips, www.cdeclips.com/en/opinion/fullstory.html?id=28044).

Philadelphia Inquirer,

Globe and Mail, May 18, 2009, v1.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/

with an estimated value to receiving countries of US$60 billion (University World News, September 27, 2009, Issue

Our Thoughts The dominance of English-speaking tertiary providers, the US, Australia, and the UK, is no longer assured when students seek a portable, prestigious degree.

Inside HigherEd, October 6, 2009, www.insidehighered.com/news/2009/10/05/global).

The Guardian, October

significant number of them due to a serious visa backlog that has resulted in over 14,000 Pakistani students alone being barred (The Guardian, October 14, 2009, www.guardian.co.uk/global/2009/oct/14/overseas-students-fees-visas).

to the economic slowdown and a drop in aid from US colleges, it may be more permanent than some wish (The Economic Times,

Trends in Higher Education

52 April–June 2010 | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html

Observation The economy is likely to have a long-term effect on enrollments. The mix of students will remain in flux and differ among publics, privates, and for-profit institutions. The “job-less recovery” is predicted to continue for at least five years (The New York Times, October 2, 2009, www.nytimes.com/2009/10/03/business/ economy/03jobs.html?_r=1).

is likely to persist (Bloomberg.com, Inside HigherEd,

“Projections of Education Statistics to 2018”, www.edpubs.org).

two-thirds of students’ college choices, with more opting for public institutions and community colleges (The College Board and Art & Science Group, LLC, USA Today, March 25,

“Hindsight, Insight, Foresight: Understanding Adult Learning Trends to Predict Future Opportunities”,

Our Thoughts The message that higher education around the world has been sending for years—a degree means successful employment at higher pay—is clearly being played out. The students want to attend, but how will they pay for it?

Teachers College Record, most likely to be considered in deciding where to go to college, whether 2-year or 4-year were ‘affordable/financial’ and ‘location’ (Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, neces.ed.gov/das/).

adjusted for inflation (The New York Times, September 11, 2009, www.nytimes.com/2009/09/11/us/11poverty.html?sc

time enrollment increased only 5 percent. The total share of two-year colleges’ undergraduate enrollment rose to 41

this shift from 4-year to 2-year institutions is likely to continue increasing more quickly than originally predicted (National Center for Education Statistics,

Pew Research Center, October 29, 2009, pewsocialtrends.org).

Economics

Observation Students’ ability to find funding for college took many hits this fall, including the loss of state scholarship programs, lack of job options, and increased tuition.

reduced eligibility for state scholarship programs—some after students had already enrolled for the fall semester (The Miami Herald, The New York Times, USA Today, The Detroit Free Press, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, content/metro/stories/2009/04/26/georgia_scholarship_eliminated.html).

that there are no guarantees even for the thrifty (Stateline,

of students they are funding (The New York Times, June 27, 2009).

Trends in Higher Education

Planning for Higher Education | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html 53

Our Thoughts Students and parents are looking to institutions and lenders to help fill the gaps from state-sponsored programs. Changes in federal funding should help, but are unlikely to meet either need or the goals set by the administration.

the web and among strangers (The New York Times,

The Chicago Tribune, sns-yourmoney-086loans,0,0674248.story).

of institutions (USA Today,

certificate or bachelor’s programs (College Board, The

Project on Student Debt,

Observation Like the proverbial deer in the headlights, institutions around the world are coping with reduced funding and often using similar tactics for cost containment and revenue enhancement (University World News, July 5, 2009, www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20090703122659593).

Thirty-five states are assuming reduced fiscal resources will be available in 2010, while 42 states were forced to reduce their previously enacted 2009 budgets (National Governor’s Association, National Association of State Budget Officers,

The New York Times, July 18, 2009, nytimes.com/2009/07/18/

and even who pays for them (anyone who is willing to donate to support a course (The San Francisco Chronicle, June Inside Higher Ed, September

11, 2009, www.insidehighered.com/views/sloane/sloane29).

American Association of State Colleges and Universities; The Chronicle of Higher Education,

Our Thoughts The Higher Education Price Index (HEPI), as well as tuition, continues to outpace the Consumer Price Index (CPI), even though it dropped from 5 percent to 2.3 percent. Some are asking if higher education will be the next ‘bubble’ to burst (The Commonfund Institute, September 9, 2009, www.commonfund.org/Commonfund/ Archive/CF+Institute/2009+0909+HEPI+Press+Release.htm; The Chronicle of Higher Education, May 22, 2009, chronicle.com/weekly/v55/i37/37a05601.htm).

Virtually all the other components of the index had lower increases this fiscal year than last (The Commonfund Institute, elease.htm).

tuition and fees have risen by 440 percent—more than four times the rate of inflation and almost twice the rate of health care costs (The Chronicle of Higher Education,

National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities, June 29, 2009, www.

Environment

Observation China is now the world’s top emitter of greenhouse gases. The US and China now account for some 40 percent of the world’s emissions (The McKinsey Quarterly, M. Joerss, J. Woetzel, and H. Zhang, May 2009, “China’s Green Opportunity”; The New York Times, June 8, 2009, www.nytimes.com/2009/06/08/world/08treaty.html?_r =1&scp=2&sq=global+warming&st=nyt).

8 percent (Knowledge@Wharton,

China Daily eClips, html?id=14685).

(Knowledge@Wharton,

Our Thoughts Chinese leaders pronounce important green goals and policies, but it’s still a long way from seeing them implemented at the local level. They may want continued GDP (gross domestic product) growth of 8–9 percent, but it seems to come with skyrocketing pollution problems and an unwillingness to compromise with other countries.

terbium—that are vital to the manufacturing of hybrid cars, cell phones, large wind turbines, and computer monitors. It produces more than 99 percent of the world’s supply (The New York Times, September 1, 2009, www.nytimes.

creating toxic emissions that fall across the world. (The New York Times,

coal-fired plants being built without permits (Knowledge@Wharton, article.cfm?articleid=2254).

Observation Increasingly, technology is contributing to greenhouse gas emissions across the world. Research indicates that at a minimum, 2 percent of the global atmospheric carbon emissions can be traced to the information technology industry (Knowledge@Wharton, September 3, 2008, knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article. cfm?articleid=2040).

(EDUCAUSE Center for Applied Research,

has contributed to inefficiencies (The Chronicle of Higher Education, January 9, 2009, chronicle.com/free/v55/

Our Thoughts Unfortunately, on many campuses physical plant is in charge of energy use and IT has yet to be tapped for its ability to provide solutions that reduce energy consumption across a wide variety of venues.

Nature, September 10, 2009, v 461, p 154-55).

Trends in Higher Education

54 April–June 2010 | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html

Trends in Higher Education

Planning for Higher Education | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html 55

expected as the cost of energy rises with economic recovery (The McKinsey Quarterly,

Global Education

Observation China’s ability to rapidly expand its higher education system is bearing fruit, and could well accelerate, as its economy has suffered far less than others in the global economic downturn (China Daily eClips, November 5, 2009, www.cdeclips.com/en/nation/fullstory.html?id=33032).

close to the numbers found in the US and the European Union (University World News, December 14, 2008, universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20081212095956597).

Arab News,

and providing support for 5,000 of its best graduate students to study abroad (University World News, universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20090528175524756).

Our Thoughts China has invested in higher education for many of the same reasons all nations do. What effects are those investments likely to have on the world of tertiary education?

options (The New York Times,

The Chronicle of Higher Education,

to help universities teach Mandarin and collaborate on research within mainstream university programs (University World News,

Observation At the first United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) World Conference on Higher Education in 1998 there about 100 million students enrolled in postsecondary education around the world. At the conference held in July 2009, it was estimated that there are close to 150 million (Inside HigherEd, July 7, 2009, www.insidehighered.com/news/2009/07/07/unesco).

access, affordability, and quality—particularly for developing nations (UNESCO,

their state-supported institutions of higher education that is unlikely to be met by traditional face-to-face instruction (Inside HigherEd, July 7, 2009, www.insidehighered.com/news/2009/07/07/unesco).

quality and remains a concern of many higher education leaders (The Chronicle of Higher Education, July 9, 2009,

Our Thoughts While global tertiary education leaders focused on how to deliver opportunity across the world, rankings continue to drive investments in research, not in access (University World News, May 24, 2009, www. universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20090521174410568).

University World News,

Trends in Higher Education

56 April–June 2010 | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html

Institute of International Education,

(Newsweek,

Learning

Observation Research on the learning outcomes of online education has demonstrated that it’s at least the equivalent, if not better, than the outcomes of just face-to-face courses. Blended learning provides the greatest benefits of all (Center for Technology in Learning, B. Means, Y. Toyama, R. Murphy, M. Bakia, and K. Jones (2009), US Department of Education, Office of Planning, Evaluation, and Policy Development, Policy and Program Studies Service, www.ed.gov/rschstat/eval/tech/evidence-based-practices/finalreport.doc).

that online students spend engaging the course content and the instructor (Review of Educational Research,

District reinforces the finding that it’s the teacher that makes the difference, not necessarily the number of students (eSchool News, May 29, 2009, eschoolnews.com/news/top-news/index.cfm?i=58946).

Sloan Consortium,

Our Thoughts Ubiquitous learning is here. Students no longer have to show up in a bricks-and-mortar building to achieve their learning goals, they’ve become ‘free agents.’

Net Day Speak Up 2008, www. netdayspeakup.org/Speakup2008/) found that the largest digital disconnect is between what students are learning and living outside of school, and the technology they work with in school (T.H.E. Journal,

lang=en). eSchool News,

2009, eschoolnews.com/news/top-news/?i=58076).

an 18-week period scored significantly higher on district benchmark tests than the students in the control group (eSchool News,

Observation Students need to have increased involvement with the assessment of learning outcomes, particularly if institutions are serious about documenting the range of knowledge and skills that result from postsecondary education.

percent of the chief academic officers responding thought ‘all students’ understood the intended learning outcomes of Hart Research Associates,

lead to improved achievement, did not increase early dropout rates, and created a biased test that did not help females

Trends in Higher Education

Planning for Higher Education | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html 57

Hart Research Associates,

Our Thoughts E-portfolios offer an assessment option that can cut across formal, informal, and occupational learning. Allowing students to own their work makes e-portfolios more effective, but requires increased trust and valid rubrics.

course, contributes to difficulty in making them portable (Campus Technology, March 11, 2009, campustechnology.

only 42 percent reported using them as part of their assessment efforts (Hart Research Associates,

Inside HigherEd, March 5,

Politics

Observation The new administration has pushed for changes in higher education, from increased Pell Grant funding to direct student loans. Not everything has passed both houses of Congress, but the implications are already being anticipated.

software systems can effectively handle the changes (The Chronicle of Higher Education,

eSchool News, July 8, 2009, www.eschoolnews.com/news/top-news/index.cfm?i=59549).

the post-baccalaureate placement rate (Association for Institutional Research, March 2009, www.airweb.org/e-air/current/ Inside Higher Ed,

Our Thoughts The debate over health care legislation has stalled many of the administration’s educational initiatives. Although there is no resolution yet, it’s hard to see how health care changes won’t affect higher education students, faculty, and staff.

forward so far (The New York Times, September 14, 2009, nytimes.com/2009/09/14/health/policy/14nonprofit.html?_

More are requiring students to purchase reasonably expensive student health insurance through the school, regardless of other coverage (The Boston Globe, student_health_plans/).

time and money spent without the reward of reduced costs and higher quality of care (Federal Computer Week, 7, 2009, fcw.com/articles/2009/08/10/feat-is-the-nhin–ready-for-health-it-stimulus.aspx?sc_lang=en).

Trends in Higher Education

58 April–June 2010 | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html

Observation National, but not federal, standards for K-12 mathematics and English are being developed under the auspices of the Council of Chief State School Officers and the National Governors Association. Called the Common Core State Standards initiative, every state but Texas has agreed to participate (www.corestandards.org; Inside Higher Ed, September 21, 2009, insidehighered.com/news/2009/09/21/core).

Education Sector, June 2009,

educationsector.org).

not valid as campus-wide indicators of learning outcomes (Center for Studies in Higher Education, 2009, G. Thomson

be used to answer the questions most frequently posed by the public (Education Sector,

Our Thoughts States are competing for $4.35 billion in grant funding through the “Race to the Top” initiative for K-12 schools. In order to qualify, state legislatures have to pass reform bills that include expansion of charter schools and a mechanism for rewarding and retaining the best teachers (eSchool News, November 12, 2009, www.eschoolnews.com/news/top-news/index.cfm?i=61767).

education?

own standards for student success was maintained (Inside Higher Ed, May 20, 2009, www.insidehighered.com/ news/2009/05/20/accredit).

most people agree there is both not enough capacity nor a sufficient need for everyone to accomplish that goal (The Chronicle of Higher Education,

Technology

Observation IT security on campuses has continued to evolve, but it still faces many challenges, some external, but most internal.

The New York Times,

portable media (EDUCAUSE,

JMC Privacy Consulting Group,

Trends in Higher Education

Planning for Higher Education | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html 59

Our Thoughts The federal government has initiated a stronger stance on cyber-security, making it part of the national security system (“Cyberspace Policy Review”, May 2009, whitehouse.gov/assets/…/Cyberspace_Policy_Review_ final.pdf)

(Federal Computer Week, September 9, 2009, fcw.com/articles/2009/09/09/open-identity-groups-collaborate-with- federal-agencies.aspx?sc_lang=en)

campuses had suffered a security breach in the last year (eCampus News, June 11, 2009, www.ecampusnews.com/news/ top-news/?i=59161).

the help of higher level security programs, people on campus are the ones most likely to introduce viruses, botnets, and other alien programs into a campus’ system (EDUCAUSE,

eCampus News, EDUCAUSE Review, September/October 2009, J.

Observation Even in times of down budgets, campuses need to find a way to invest in technology, from supercomputer time to Internet connection speeds (The Chronicle of Higher Education, August 10, 2009, http://chronicle.com/ article/Your-College-Gets-a-Superco/47957/).

Campus Technology, 2009, p 42, campustechnology.com/articles/2009/08/01/trendspotter.aspx?sc_lang=en).

percent of executives expect a reduction (The McKinsey Quarterly,

executives (EDUCAUSE Review,

Our Thoughts Campus IT executives are now dealing with a range of issues that have gone far beyond the purchasing of computers for faculty and running the student data system. Their ability to effectively influence planning in an institution could be the most important task ahead in the ever-expanding portfolio of expectations for technology (EDUCAUSE Review, July/August, A. Agee and C. Yang, “Top-Ten IT Issues 2009, pp 45-58).

most of the rest of campus is facing decreases (eCampus News, May 19, 2009). th in the world (Yahoo Tech News,

The New York Times,

acceptance and expectation of e-book availability (The Chronicle of Higher Education, June 12, 2009, chronicle.com/ eSchool News, September 1, 2009, www.eschoolnews.com/news/top-news/?i=60446).

Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission.

Articvle 2

 

ARTICLE10.1177/0002716202238564THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMYTHE ENVIRONMENT OF AMERICAN HIGHER EDUCATION The American university is one of society’s key institu- tions, perhaps the lead institution available today to respond to changing societal imperatives. However, for the university to continue to play a leading role, it is important to match the functions of the institution with the societal imperatives presented by a changed envi- ronment. In short, for purposeful, intelligent redesign of the university to take place, new blueprints for changes in the role of the university must be constructed. This article aims at such a blueprint. A heterogeneous set of changes in the environment—globalization, immigra- tion, rising social-economic inequality, centrality of the knowledge economy, and issues surrounding cultural identity—are the new changes that will transform the American university in coming decades. The implica- tions of each of the challenges, particularly the recogni- tion that the university must take a stronger responsibil- ity to improve the nation’s human capital, are discussed.

The following excerpt is from Felix Frank-furter’s (1948) letter to the editor of The New York Times, 8 January 1948, in appreciation of Alfred North Whitehead shortly after his death.

To dwell, however inadequately, on the qualities of a teacher like Alfred North Whitehead is important if our universities are important. They are important if the institutions specially charged with the accumulation of the intellectual capital of the world are important to a society. Who will deny that Professor Whitehead was right in his belief that the fate of the intellectual civilization of the world today is to no inconsiderable extent in the keeping of our universities? “The Aegean Coastline had its chance and made use of it; Italy had its chance and made use of it; France, Eng- land, Germany had their chance and made use of it. Today the Eastern American universities have their chance. What use will they make of it? That question has two answers. Once Babylon had its

8 ANNALS, AAPSS, 585, January 2003

The Environment of American

Higher Education:

A Constellation of Changes

By

ROGER BENJAMIN

Roger Benjamin is president of RAND’s Council for Aid to Education.

NOTE: The opinions expressed are solely the author’s and do not represent those of RAND or its sponsors. DOI: 10.1177/0002716202238564

chance, and produced the Tower of Babel. The University of Paris fashioned the intellect of the Middle Ages.”

The awful question that confronts American universities is, What are they doing with their power and their duty?

The argument

A constellation of changes in the environment of American higher education adds up to a new landscape of constraints and opportunities that higher education leaders, both faculty and administrators, will need to address in the coming decades. The changes, which become new policy imperatives that will lead to a transformation of the University, are

1. globalization, 2. immigration, 3. rising social-economic inequality, 4. the knowledge economy, and 5. cultural identity.

All elements of these forces are of critical importance. However, abetted by new priorities of the state, the ultimate arbiter of what policy issues rise to the top of the public policy agenda, basic elements of these five changes suggest that a strategic repositioning of the mission and incentive system, accompanied by new ways to calibrate the repositioning, is in order for postsecondary teaching institutions. Because of the emerging Internet-based knowledge economy, the university faces multiple public claims that others can provide appropriate higher education better and cheaper than private or public higher education. These claims, now being tested in the marketplace, suggest the need for a major assessment of the quality of undergraduate education.

Second, higher education must exhibit stronger leadership in setting curricula and pedagogical expectations and stands, especially in teacher education. K-12 education will take the cue if higher education, through its admissions and financial aid policies, demands higher standards, and to do that, higher education must first raise its own standards appreciably. Assessment of learning is thus a fundamental formative and summative feedback necessity for raising standards and setting cri- teria for evaluation of the entire K-16 system. The result is that the American uni- versity will have a redesigned mission, which focuses on improving the K-16 educa- tion system, the main lever for human capital development that will be a top nation-state priority in the next several decades.

The university in its American form (the mix of public land-grant and private independent colleges) that emerged out of the nineteenth century is one of the two most successful institutional innovations (the other being the modern corporation) that should be acknowledged as the primary engines of American economic and social progress. In addition to being a fulcrum for economic growth, the higher education sector has been responsible for intergenerational social mobility for

THE ENVIRONMENT OF AMERICAN HIGHER EDUCATION 9

most citizens (Native Americans and many African Americans). But just now the leadership of the American university is not engaged with the fundamental issues that will demand attention during the next several decades.

University leaders do not understand their obligation to take a leadership role in human capital development (the economic term for education),1 in particular, leadership of the K-16 educational continuum, which is the key to continued social mobility and economic growth. Nor does there appear to be much engagement in the academy with the major challenges and opportunities a series of fundamental economic and social transformation poses to the university. The reason for this situ- ation may well be the rapidity with which a constellation of forces is sweeping over the university (cf. Hirsch and Weber 1999). The following discussion justifies this assessment.

The role of the university

The university has always been in a patron-client relationship, first with the church, then with the state, and now also with industry. However, at critical histori- cal junctures, the university has also become the primary venue, the transforming element in human development (i.e., the Renaissance and the invention and impact of the land-grant university in late-nineteenth- and early- to mid-twentieth- century America). But the role of the university must be understood within the forces of economic and social change itself that in turn compose the context within which the university operates. The university has never stood completely outside society. Rather, it must be understood as a major institution of society. The argu- ment of this article is that we are now well into another of these critical historical junctures, a set of threshold changes in the society, economy, and political land- scapes that present a novel set of challenges and opportunities that the university must respond to during the next several decades. The goal of the article is to lay out these challenges, which become policy imperatives on which the American univer- sity must focus as central demands in the coming decades. First, however, a word about the structuring assumption underlying this article.

In times of rapid change, the best social science becomes policy-relevant archi- tecture based on an understanding of the emergent properties of economic and social trends that humanity must grapple with in the future. Such work presents blueprints for institutional responses to these projected trends (Benjamin 1982). This is so because institutions are designs in the most basic sense—human artifacts created for social purpose. As such, they can and are changed in a variety of ways over time. The university is one of society’s key institutions, perhaps the lead institution available today to respond to changing societal imperatives. But for intelligent redesign of the university to take place, new blueprints for changes in the role of the university need to be constructed. This statement aims at such a blueprint.2

10 THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY

THE ENVIRONMENT OF AMERICAN HIGHER EDUCATION 11

The New Policy Environment

Economic transformation to the knowledge economy: Gaining and losing comparative advantage

The measures of GNP, formulated by S. Kusnet in the 1930s when the American economy was primarily industrial in nature, remains biased toward the production and consumption of material goods. Although it is still not clear how information- sensitive goods should be measured, their increasing importance to the American economy became clear in the decade of the 1990s. Old economy stocks were dis- carded as part of the Dow 30 stocks used to benchmark the Dow Jones Industrial Average and were replaced by high-technology companies. Aided by the econo- mies of scale brought by Internet-based companies, which allow additional layers of management to be discarded, the productivity of the U.S. economy has resumed levels thought impossible just a few years ago. Whether the current productivity growth will be sustained remains an open question. However, no one disputes the importance of the information economy as being the key to productivity and, hence, economic growth for the American economy.

Since the early 1990s, economic growth has been recognized as dependent on value added—to data, to existing information systems, and to increasingly complex organized structures of meanings sometimes called knowledge algorithms at their fullest development. Internet Web–based sites are now a principal venue for eco- nomic activity. For example, business-to-business sites can cut many layers of pre- viously required bureaucracy. All this now firmly places the knowledge economy as the dominant sector of the economy. I will emphasize the importance of value added measures to improving student performance below.

Figure 1 shows the change over time and also suggests that the role of the knowl- edge part of the economy will become even more important during the next several decades (Benjamin 1980).

Agriculture, once the major engine of the American economy, declined to less than 5 percent of the economy by the late twentieth century. The role of industry is also declining—although it will probably bottom out at between 15 and 20 percent of the economy. Whereas the level of steel production used to be a measure of the economic development achieved in a country, arguments are made today for mini- mum levels of steel and other key industrial indicators. Even this argument is prob- lematic. With the global trading system opening up, there is no real economic or even national security justification for subsidizing inefficient industries. Each country, each region within larger countries, should focus on its points of compara- tive advantage.3

Human capital as comparative advantage

Most political leaders in functioning nation-states understand the importance of human capital as the only primary asset a country has; it is no longer as important

that a country has comparative advantage in land or labor defined in terms of num- bers of people. This has meant an unprecedented focus on economic growth across the globe. Since most of the countries are at earlier stages of the product cycle, there continues to be an emphasis on the development of the manufacturing part of the economy. This, in turn, places additional pressure on the American economy to move up the product cycle (see Kurth 1979). Contrary to a political campaign slogan, it matters whether one produces computer chips or potato chips. In all like- lihood, the U.S. economy will continue to lose its comparative manufacturing advantage to competitors abroad who produce manufactured goods of comparable or better quality at lower prices. Thus, individuals with increased human capital will be more successful as the American economy progressively puts a premium on high skills.

The New Policy Agenda

There are at least five major changes, which become new policy issue areas that taken together form a new context within which the university will operate during the next several decades. It is these policy areas that alone and in interaction, form a new set of imperatives for higher education. I will concentrate, particularly, on the implications of the first three policy imperatives here.

Globalization

After the end of the cold war, the world economy is accelerating, enabled by the Internet and advances in telecommunications. Globalization becomes a major

12 THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY

Industry Sector

Agriculture

Knowledge Sector

% of GNP

40

30

20

10

0 Time 1, 2, 3, Tn

FIGURE 1 KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY PROCESS—STATE

challenge for all states because of the destabilizing nature of capital flows and loss of comparative advantage in whole economic sectors. Multinational corporations are not held captive to individual states; they invest where it is most profitable for them to do so. Increasingly, the main role of nation-states is to provide health, eco- nomic, and educational safety nets for their citizens who do not have the same lux- ury as corporations have to move around the globe.

Under such conditions, the main defense national leaders have is to enhance their human capital assets to ensure their nation is in the best possible position to compete in the world economy. Although every national leadership faces similar global challenges, each nation begins the twenty-first century with different assets and debits in their human capital structure. Education is a key to human capital development, and therefore a key goal national leaders will take on is how to improve their educational infrastructure. What role should universities take in designing responses to globalization? Should universities take a greater role in improving human capital, which, in turn, would mean an expanded K-16 role?

Because political leaders understand the importance of human capital to their national development, they are beginning to focus on ways to improve it. A typical strategy is for national leaders to make labor market projections, looking forward ten or fifteen years. This usually produces negative scenarios with too much of the future labor market employed in less desirable industries. The second task is to conduct an audit of all postsecondary education and training assets in the nation. Once this task is completed, the leaders compare the educational infrastructure to the labor market projections. They will find disconnects or an absence of alignment between where national leaders want their economies to go and what their postsecondary education and training systems are prepared to produce. Thus, course corrections can be made—new investments, say, in high-technology education.

Immigration

The immigration pressures in the United States are unlikely to abate. And because of the low level of educational investment present in many current and future immigrants, this presents critical policy issues for the United States. During the next fifty years, the world’s population will grow, at a minimum, from 5 to 10 bil- lion. Most of this growth will occur in areas of the world least likely to generate enough economic growth internally to absorb their population increase. Of course, it is always possible that the United States will adopt stringent immigration poli- cies. However, based on America’s history, it is more probable that immigrants will continue to come to the United States in substantial numbers. What role, if any, should the university play in response to the special needs of immigrants?

A doubling in the proportion of immigrants in the workforce since the 1970s (more than 10 percent of the workforce is now foreign born) and the lower educa- tional level of more recent immigrants are additional factors in the growth of income disparity. In 1970, only 6 percent of the immigrant workforce came from Mexico or Central America, and 68 percent came from Europe. In 1995, 21 per-

THE ENVIRONMENT OF AMERICAN HIGHER EDUCATION 13

cent of the immigrant workforce came from Mexico or Central America, and only 34 percent from Europe. Because the educational level of Mexican and Central American immigrants is lower than that of many other immigrant groups, the earn- ings of more recent immigrants have deteriorated relative both to native workers and to earlier immigrants and are likely to remain low throughout these immi- grants’ working lives. If these trends hold, a growing proportion of workers will have less than a high school diploma and will face declining earnings during their lifetimes (see Schoeni, McCarthy, and Vernez 1996).

This point is critical because Hispanics will be the majority population in Cali- fornia, Texas, and New Mexico and the plurality in a number of other states in just a decade or less.

Rise of social-economic inequality

Wage and family income disparities have been growing during the past several decades. Figure 2 shows the distribution of family income in the United States in real terms, adjusted for inflations and indexed to 1976. (In other words, 1976 is shown as a base, and wages estimated for subsequent years are shown as a percent- age of what they were in 1976.) As Figure 2 shows, families at the top of the scale will be earning about 50 percent more in 2015 than they did in 1976. This is not because men’s wages are going up but because more women are working and fami- lies tend to be smaller than they used to be, creating more workers in the economy per family. Those in the middle of the income distribution scale will be a little bet-

14 THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

In de

x of

r ea

l a ve

ra ge

f am

ily in

co m

e

1976 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

90th percentile

50th percentile

10th percentile

FIGURE 2 LONG-TERM TRENDS IN FAMILY INCOME

SOURCE: Prepared originally for Commission on National Investment in Higher Education (1997).

ter off, though not much. But for those in the bottom 10th percentile—consisting largely of single-parent families headed by women and families of low-education immigrant populations—we see a 36 percent fall in income compared to what fam- ilies in that income bracket earned in 1976. In that year, families at the 90th percen- tile enjoyed income levels nine times greater than those of families at the 10th per- centile. By 1993, the disparity was twelvefold. At this rate, the ratio will exceed sixteen to one by 2015.

Education and income: The intimate link

As noted above, the single most important factor in determining level of income is level of education.4 Figure 3 shows the distribution of real hourly wages of male workers by education level. Men with a college education have kept pace with inflation during the twenty-year period, men with some college education have seen a decline in real income of 14 percent, and men with only a high school diploma have lost 18 percent. Meanwhile, real wages of high school dropouts have declined by 25 percent.

If these lines are drawn out another twenty years using the same rates, the result is devastating. By 2015, male workers with only a high school education will have lost 38 percent of what comparable male workers earned in 1976. And those with- out a high school diploma will have lost 52 percent in real earnings during the same period. If the U.S. economy continues to place a high value on a college-educated

THE ENVIRONMENT OF AMERICAN HIGHER EDUCATION 15

120

100

60

80

40

20

0 19801976 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

College Some college

High school

Less than high school

In de

x of

m al

e re

al h

ou rl

y w

ag es

FIGURE 3 DISTRIBUTION OF REAL MEAN HOURLY WAGES

FOR MALE WORKERS BY EDUCATION LEVEL

SOURCE: Prepared originally for Commission on National Investment in Higher Education (1997).

workforce, then only college graduates will be able to hold their own economically out to 2015. Those who attend some college will not do badly, but those who stop pursuing an education before or after graduating from high school will lose ground during their working lives (Benjamin and Carroll 1997).

Second, what is the relationship between race/ethnicity and education levels attained?

Like non-Hispanic whites, African Americans and Hispanics suffer economic consequences if they do not pursue higher education. Because larger proportions of these two groups fail to go beyond high school, larger proportions of these groups are among the poor. Figure 4 shows an index that conveys the ratio of the number of students in higher education for various ethnic/racial groups to the total number of eighteen- to twenty-nine-year-olds in those groups. The figure plot changes in that index over the twenty years and extrapolates the rates out to 2015.

As of 2000, Asians and Pacific Islanders scored 45 on this index, and non-Hispanic whites scored just less than 40. In contrast, African Americans and Hispanics scored about 22 and 18, respectively. Although participation rates are increasing for all groups, they are currently increasing more rapidly for whites and Asians than for African Americans and Hispanics. As a result, the gap could widen considerably by 2015. Only by increasing the proportion of African Americans and Hispanics going to college can the gap be stabilized or reduced (Benjamin and Carroll 1997).5

Finally, if we go to an example at the university-system level, the disparities between racial/ethnic groups are equally disturbing. A RAND report providing a

16 THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY

.60

.50

.30

.40

.20

.10

0 19801976 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Pa rt

ic ip

at io

n ra

te

Asian or Pacific Islander

White, non-Hispanic

African American

Hispanic

FIGURE 4 RATE OF PARTICIPATION OF DIFFERENT

ETHNIC RACIAL GROUPS IN HIGHER EDUCATION

SOURCE: Prepared originally for Commission on National Investment in Higher Education (1997).

statistical profile of City University of New York’s (CUNY’s) incoming freshmen presents information about the relationships among various test scores and grades at CUNY (Klein and Orlando 2000). CUNY is the third largest public university system in the United States (after California State University and the State Univer- sity of New York). It also is the largest urban system. Consequently, findings regarding the characteristics of the students at this university are likely to be of interest to policy makers at other urban, public, higher education institutions across the United States.

The mean total SAT scores of the entering freshman at CUNY in 1997 were 817 for those entering community colleges and 910 for those entering senior four-year colleges. By comparison, the National Collegiate Athletic Association’s eligibility requirements for athletic scholarships is an SAT level of 820. Overall, because the recentered SATs have a national mean of 1,000 for combined verbal and math scores, CUNY’s scores place it in the bottom 10 percent of all higher education institutions. And, as is the case with tests using the SAT or similar tests around the country, Hispanic and African American entering students score significantly lower than non-Hispanic whites and Asian Americans. These figures continue to generate controversy at CUNY where they are used to argue for and against the use of SAT scores and whether and how remedial instruction should be delivered. But they are presented here for a different reason.

These figures suggest that remediation is the wrong issue to be concerned about. The figures indicate the effects of lack of progress throughout the K-12 sys- tem prior to coming to CUNY. Many of the students, as measured by the SAT scale, come to CUNY unequipped to do postsecondary education or training. More important, we know from recent progress in cognitive science that all racial/ethnic groups have the same innate cognitive abilities. Therefore, it is time to cease coun- terproductive assertions about the capacity of different ethnic groups to achieve and, instead, focus on removing the obstacles that stand in the way of under- represented groups closing the gap with their Asian American and non-Hispanic white counterparts.

Social-economic inequality has clearly become a major issue. Policies and actions that reduce this inequality will be very high on the national political agenda in the future. If education is the fundamental solution to social-economic inequal- ity, should the university accept the responsibility to take a more central role in dealing with this issue?

Two other macro forces, the knowledge economy and cultural identity, not immediately central to the growing importance of human capital, are presented in the appendix.

The state

If the nature and role of the state and the public policy issues it focuses on change, so do the challenges the university faces. This is so because the state is the venue through which new public policies are brought to the top of the policy agenda, and in turn, these new policy makers make these new policy issues a prior-

THE ENVIRONMENT OF AMERICAN HIGHER EDUCATION 17

ity for the university. For example, most education policy studies do not question the role the state should play in forming education policy. Rather, this body of work typically seeks to corroborate more or less efficient existing systems, or new deliv- ery systems, within the K-16 education system—for example, the effectiveness of class size reduction, curriculum, or governance reforms. But if one steps back and thinks about the state concept as having different roles in different contexts, the focus changes. I note the implications of two models of the state here.

The state as administrative order. This concept encompasses all the ele- ments of the state as a coherent whole. Thus, bureaucratic agencies and per- sonnel are elements that make up but do not define the state. Rather, attention is directed at the structuring principles that exist to aggregate discrete individ- ual and institutional actors. Governmental institutions compete but also exist in discernible relation to one another. Authors in quite different schools of thought identify growth of the scope and penetration of governmental institu- tions across the full range of social and economic activities.

The state as institutional-legal order. This conceptualization is broader, with the state being conceived of as the “enduring structure of governance and rule in society” (Benjamin and Duvall 1985, 25; cf. Held 1989). This means the entire structure of law both in the de jure and de facto senses; thus, one visual- izes the state as the institutional and legal order. It may be argued that the state as administrative order is derived from this deeper model. It is in this model that property rights, per se, should be defined as basic features of the state. It is the nature of property rights that determine what is considered public or pri- vate in society. What is viewed as private in one historical era may be seen as public in another era, for example, witness the rising claims of environmental groups in the late twentieth century who treat much more of what used to be considered private as part of the commons.

This model of the state places the focus on the legal system from which regula- tory rules and procedures dealing with emerging systems of economic activity must come. The state as institutional-legal order becomes especially crucial during peri- ods of threshold-type transition in the social and economical order at large. At later stages of social-economical development, new forms of property rights may be cre- ated in the form of entitlements as social payments or perhaps even public employ- ment. Indeed, this is why we may expect education to increasingly be regarded as an entitlement in the future. Citizens will increasingly demand equality of oppor- tunity in education as a right.

The point of this twofold model is that one derives different basic public policy foci depending on which model of the state one concentrates on. With regard to education policy, one concentrates on different issues entirely if one is concerned with the state as administrative order versus the deeper state as institutional-legal order.

18 THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY

In knowledge economies, the primary elements of order and concentration on economic growth come under challenge as citizens begin to question the high level of social and economic inequalities generated in the earlier growth period when entrepreneurial freedom was emphasized. Justice becomes a more prevalent con- cern as groups and individuals become more attentive to the relative distribution of goods as compared to simply worrying about maintaining the order necessary to pro- duce goods. In the phrase of those who analyze attitudinal data, “post-materialist” values come to the fore in the knowledge societies (Inglehart 1997).

Table 1 presents schematically the differences in education policy emphasis between industrial versus knowledge societies. One sees how the state in its con- text determines the kind of education issues that rise to the top of the public agenda.

The question is, What is the future role of the American university in the educa- tion or human capital policy equation? In the industrial phase of change, it was enough for the university to provide opportunities for social and economic mobility and be there for students prepared to respond to the demands of higher education. The high school was the market that provided the higher education sector with the material it desired at the quality level it needed. What if this is no longer the case? What if the university faces a very different kind of student?

Projections

The next two decades will be a time of dramatic change for the American univer- sity. The changes noted above will affect the way the university functions. Loss of the monopoly of production and consumption of knowledge will present new chal- lenges and opportunities for faculty and administrators (see appendix). Because of Internet-based courseware and supporting archival material that will increasingly

THE ENVIRONMENT OF AMERICAN HIGHER EDUCATION 19

TABLE 1 CHARACTERISTICS OF EDUCATION POLICY

IN KNOWLEDGE VERSUS INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES

Order Industrial Economy Knowledge Economy

Administrative Development of school districts Focus on assessment of quality, Development of public post- benchmarking of institutions

secondary system Decentralization of institutions Centralization of institutions and systems

and systems

Institutional-legal High school becomes entitlement, Postsecondary education focus on greater opportunity— becomes entitlement, focus on GI Bill, Pell Grants equal access by all racial/ethnic

groups, level playing field for all, equalization of school district funding within states

be available, university faculty will not need to be as focused on the development of their own courses, libraries, or physical plant. Markets will develop in which appli- cation service providers offer course material produced by the best academic minds available. Faculty and administrators will be able to focus on other ways to distinguish their college from others, for example, by a focus on a particular cul- tural identity or policy problem such as the environment.

Research will also be reorganized. The lesson of the Human Genome project is that private for-profits can pursue cutting-edge scientific challenges perhaps as well or better than the familiar nonprofit consortium of universities funded by the National Science Foundation. Universities will very likely enter into more partner- ships with for-profit partners. Because of the Internet, higher education institu- tions are no longer remote. Faculties at the University of Texas at El Paso, for example, now routinely use the Stanford linear accelerator for their projects, something even three years ago they could not do.

It will no longer be necessary to build stand-alone research facilities. Indeed, this is fortuitous since big science R&D will eventually rule out all but the richest among universities as dominant research entities. R&D needs are becoming so large and complex that only twenty to thirty university centers of research may prosper in the coming decades.

In one sense, this coming change is an inevitable restructuring of the Vanevar Bush era during which the incentive system that governs the faculty, the research productivity matrix, dominated the reward structure of the academy.

Figure 5 shows the cumulative share of funding for federal R&D for higher edu- cation during a twenty-eight-year period.6 The top fifty universities account for 63 percent of all federal R&D support. One hundred institutions account for 85 per- cent, and 650-plus institutions account for the rest. The fact that more than 650 institutions pursue the other 15 percent of federal research funding is due more to the absence of an alternative set of incentives to replace the research-based criteria for merit and promotion for these largely non-research-oriented universities. The implication of this is that calls for greater mission differentiation between research and teaching institutions will increase. While faculty in top universities will con- tinue to focus on research, perhaps not teaching at all, student performance will become a greater focus for nonresearch universities. Fortunately, the need for a new set of incentives within the academy combines with the clear external impera- tive for the university to take on a much stronger leadership role for human capital development in society. The implication of both of these issues is to focus on improving student performance.

The outdated research-based metric

Although science confirms the equality of the innate cognitive abilities of racial/ ethnic groups, all ethnic/racial groups do not score the same on national tests. For a variety of cultural, social, and economic reasons, few believe that all races and eth- nic groups will reach the same educational levels in the near future. Even among those who agree that all ethnic/racial groups are equally capable, there is no agree-

20 THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY

ment about how a level playing field might be constructed. Moreover, there is no consensus that the playing field should be leveled or how it might be leveled. There is also no agreement that the state should take a stronger role in lowering social- economic inequality by ensuring human capital opportunities for all its citizens. In other words, we are not yet anywhere near the point where the state views human capital of such importance that K-16 institutions and other public institutions that play a supporting role are held accountable for ensuring equality of educational opportunity for everyone.

There is also no agreement among university faculty that the university as an institution should or could bear its assets more productively on improving human capital. There is little agreement also with the view that the university has a moral obligation to help level the playing field for all citizens. Instead, most faculty believe the role of the university in K-12 reform, if it is to have one at all, should be carried by the college of education—typically one of the weaker colleges in univer- sities in status and resources. Arts and science faculties in nonresearch institutions continue to work under the research-based metric for their promotion and tenure and merit raises. Fortunately, there is an answer to the question of what might replace the research-based metric and lead the American university to respond to the set of twenty-first-century human capital policy demands from the state that will increasingly require the university to take a leading role in K-16 education.

The need for outcomes assessment7

I have described three trends—globalization, immigration, and rising social- economic inequality—that mediated through a nation-state that exhibits new pri- orities, places the future focus in higher education squarely on human capital

THE ENVIRONMENT OF AMERICAN HIGHER EDUCATION 21

Number of Institiutions

0 400 500 600100 200 300 700 800

20

40

0

60

80

100

C um

ul at

iv e

Fe de

ra l F

un ds

FIGURE 5 TOTAL FEDERAL R&D EXPENDITURES: FISCAL YEAR 1998

development. The American university is not monolithic; this is an important point to remember. For example, even if human capital development becomes the top priority of the university, this does not mean all universities will focus on improv- ing undergraduate education and taking the lead in raising quality throughout the K-16 education system. Research university faculty may increase their attention to research. And not all postsecondary institutions will need to produce B.A. degrees; many institutions and programs will be focused on providing certifications of skill sets. Among all of these postsecondary education and training institutions that focus primarily on teaching, there are enough commonalities among the problems and possibilities facing faculty and administrators to warrant a discussion of what needs to change among these institutions. I will discuss these changes and hold for another opportunity a more detailed discussion on the implications of the knowl- edge economy and new cultural identity questions.

There is a need, for both educational and public policy reasons, to assess the quality of undergraduate education. The increasing public cry for practical educa- tion; the advent of virtual education with its promises of better, cheaper, and faster; the ripple effects of the recent wave of high-stakes K-12 testing; and the concern over the perceived costs of higher education have caused serious questions to be raised about the quality of undergraduate education.

One result is that state legislatures are demanding better measures of quality as issues of access and accountability are increasingly dominating public policy dis- cussion. In lieu of any systematic measure of quality by higher education itself, ranking systems such as those used by college guidebooks and U.S. News & World Report are being used as the surrogate measure of quality. The problem with all such rankings and comparisons is that they use input variables such as SAT scores, GPAs, rank in class, endowment dollars per student, and selectivity of admissions, none of which are measures of what students actually learn in college. Such rank- ings do a great injustice to the complexity and diversity of higher education in the United States.

Value added assessment: The only valid measure

Virtually everyone who has thought carefully about the question of assessing quality in higher education agrees that “value added” means the only valid approach. By value added, I mean the value that is added to students’ capabilities or knowledge as a consequence of their education at a particular college or univer- sity. Measuring such value requires assessing what students know and can do as they begin college and assessing them again during and after they have had the full benefit of their college education. Value added is thus the difference between the measures of students’ attainment as they enter college and measures of their attainment when they complete college. Value added is the difference a college makes in their education.

If value added is so obviously the best possible assessment, why is it not standard practice? Because value added is very difficult to measure for a number of impor- tant reasons.

22 THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY

Value has many dimensions. No college or university is trying to develop only a single capability in students. A campus may be doing a good job with one learning dimension but a mediocre one on another. And, of course, some dimensions are easier to measure than others.

Students are different. Everyone learns some subjects or capabilities more eas- ily than others. Is a college or university doing a good job of educating some better than others because of this fact?

Institutions are different. Colleges and universities do not all seek to add the same kind of value to students’ development. Their missions vary. How does one thus compare institutions for quality whose missions differ (e.g., a research univer- sity focused on graduate study compared to a small liberal arts college)?

Effects have many sources, and effects unfold. Even if students are full-time at a single institution, how can we tell what contributions that campus has made, as opposed, for example, to the contributions of a part-time job or their church? Moreover, the contributions to learning may not be realized in the short term; they may be felt only years later.

The most important effects are transformative. Because a liberal arts education seeks to develop a unique person, in command of all the capabilities within her or his potential, the most important effects may be uniquely combined and transformative of that person as a whole, a very difficult thing to capture on any measure.

Measurement of value added is expensive. Pretesting and posttesting, using writing samples rather than short-answer questions, and implementing tests that measure critical and imaginative thinking, for example, are far more costly than conventional testing in individual classrooms.8

Benefits of quality assessment

The quality assessment discussed here can have enormous educational value in that it can help

1. faculty and their students make better sense of the teaching and learning in which they are mutually engaged;

2. institutions of higher education measure the cumulative impact of their curricular programming;

3. higher education generally by providing benchmark data for comparisons by sector (e.g., community colleges, liberal arts colleges, research universities), as well as create the potential basis for an incentive system focused on student learning;

4. public policy decision makers concerned with issues of access, cost, accountability, and equity; and

5. the public make better decisions regarding selection of appropriate colleges and universi- ties rather than relying on current invalid ranking systems.

In short, as we hear the chant for learning organizations in the twenty-first century, as we elevate the need to educate for an information-driven society, and as we are asked to make wiser use of scarce resources, such an assessment project has many benefits and has become an important national priority.

THE ENVIRONMENT OF AMERICAN HIGHER EDUCATION 23

An important long-range rationale for measurement of quality defined in terms of value added to student performance is that it creates a marketlike mechanism through which policy makers, college administrators, faculty, parents, and students can compare institutions. Moreover, the measurement of value added to student performance is the missing necessary condition for attacking the “cost-disease problem” in higher education. Finally, it is the missing bridge between higher edu- cation and K-12 reform.

Higher education costs today increase at least a percentage above the consumer price index each year. This situation is very similar to the health sector’s cost-disease problems that have become such a major issue at the start of this new century. Busi- ness leaders, of course, operating in a disciplined market understand this point very well—only when one has a quality metric that allows the assessment on stu- dent performance of the impact of productivity enhancements of alternative A compared to those of alternative B can one frame discussions of productivity in higher education in a meaningful way.

But there are several other reasons why the quality measurement movement will have strong effects.

With the existence of credible value-added measures on the effects of courses, majors, and total undergraduate experiences, faculty can engage in continuous improvement for the first time. We know from excellent case studies that faculty can and do teach for a decade or more with no apparent positive effect on the stu- dents in their classroom.

Internet-based distance learning is growing rapidly, from 300,000 to 3 million students being taught by this method during the next three years. The largest issue debated is whether these courses are inferior to the same courses taught on-site. With a value-added measurement strategy, we can compare the benefits of Internet-based distance learning courses with their on-site counterparts.

Are the more general structuring principles offered by liberal arts curriculum in student-centered learning environments superior to other forms of instruction in terms of value added to student performance? Does liberal arts learning produce graduates with stronger writing and reading skills and, in general, sharper cognitive skills? The value-added measurement of quality programs enables answers to these important questions.

The quality measure and K-16 education reform: The missing bridge

All but the top flagship public colleges and universities have open admissions. These same institutions do not have exit standards for their two-year certificates or four-year degrees. While they may have requirements of how many courses stu- dents must take to receive their undergraduate degrees, they do not set standards of performance in, say, writing, math, or reading levels that must be reached to graduate. Hence, there are no explicit standards for admissions or graduation for most American students (most European countries do have such standards).

24 THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY

While this may have been acceptable in an earlier period of American higher education when the number of students was much smaller and homogeneous— mainly white males from the middle and professional social classes—this is not acceptable today. Today’s students are heterogeneous—female (more than 54 per- cent) as well as male and from diverse ethnic backgrounds and economic circum- stances. It may have been reasonable in the past to assume that a smaller group of largely white males and their teachers and parents internalized what educational requirements were needed to become successful undergraduate students and suc- cessful graduates. One clearly cannot assume that this is true today. The develop- ment, implementation, and communication of transparent standards for both admission to and graduation from college are fundamental requirements of mean- ingful K-16 education reform. Standards must be raised throughout the K-16 system.

Parents, teachers, and students need to have as complete an idea of admissions standards as early as possible in the K-12 system. Only then can they effectively plan to meet the standards required.9 Indeed, studies show that increased stan- dards, carefully arrived at, improve performance. Students will improve to meet the new standards.

It is equally important to articulate standards for attainment of an undergradu- ate degree. Evidence of declining quality in undergraduate education is growing. We must reverse the decline by setting reasonable standards for B.A. and B.S. degrees. Knowledge of minimum requirements for an acceptable degree holder today is limited to families who understand the need to provide music, language, and basic mathematics, reading and writing building blocks for their children from a very early age. Unfortunately, if the previously cited CUNY study is representa- tive of urban public colleges (see Gill 2000), the education level of a great propor- tion of our higher education graduates is becoming as unacceptable as the educa- tion level of high school graduates.

Faculty, like any group, respond to incentives that govern their performance. The existence of a viable set of measures of value added to student performance will provide an alternative set of incentives to the research productivity incentives that currently govern the academy.

Conclusion

If Justice Frankfurter were alive today, he might well answer his question in the negative. There are many good reasons why the university has not yet been trans- formed, but it is fair to conclude the following. Science and professional school fac- ulties in the top research universities are in business for themselves. There is no core curriculum; the humanities are fragmented and demoralized and not ready to take on the challenges listed here. There are few if any higher education leaders taking a positive view of the challenges the university faces. Instead, the Internet and distance learning are viewed as a threat. The social-economic inequality prob-

THE ENVIRONMENT OF AMERICAN HIGHER EDUCATION 25

lem, which may undermine democratic stability in the United States, is viewed as too challenging by many university leaders or as someone else’s problem.

However, I have argued that a number of policy challenges combined with the need to develop a new incentive system to reward faculty performance in most four-year institutions and community colleges presents the need for institutional redesign of the American university. The policy issue that will be at the top of the agenda is the imperative for the university to take greater leadership of the educa- tion reform agenda. But as understanding grows concerning the fundamental importance of ensuring that all citizens are empowered to develop their innate cog- nitive skills to their fullest extent, so too will interest in addressing the other challenges noted here: (1) the collision between globalization, immigration, social-economic inequality and cultural identity; (2) restating what it means to be human in the age of technology; and (3) redesigning the university to take advantage of the opportu- nities offered by the Internet. And all of this transformation is occurring as the nature and the role of the state—in which the university lives in ambiguous rela- tionship—is, itself, undergoing fundamental evolution.

A new agenda awaits those in academia who have the vision and courage to take it on. Equally, the changed context, especially the changed priorities of the state, will force responses to the new policy imperatives to the university noted here. And because of the urgency and importance of these challenges, we would be pleased if Justice Frankfurter delayed his return for a couple of decades; he then may be pleased with what the university is doing with its power and duty.

Appendix

The Knowledge Economy

The move to the Internet has major implications for the university that will reduce its monopoly on the production and consumption of knowledge.

The Role of the Internet

Internet-based application service providers will be the basis for the develop- ment of virtual libraries, specialized databases, and virtual researcher communi- ties. All of this has the potential for extraordinary progress in knowledge develop- ment. For example, the implications of Moore’s law suggests the social sciences are poised to make the same move from observation to the experimental that the physi- cal and natural sciences did. One can envisage starting many research projects with the data needed for the project already present and even organized into a variety of useful sets of meaning. Under these conditions, the researcher starts the project at a much higher level of cognitive complexity and can spend much more time focus- ing on the implications of research results. Internet-based distance learning pro- vided by for-profit and nonprofit postsecondary educational institutions is poised to erode the monopoly the university has held on the production and consumption

26 THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY

of knowledge. How should the university adjust to these major challenges during the next several decades?

The Growth of Expertise as the Source of Authority

The complexities attached to issues such as whether Microsoft is a predator in the market, air transportation safety, health care regulation, child development, genetic engineering, the environment, and so forth are not amenable to ballot box solutions. Increasingly, the courts act as venues for scientific experts to debate and sort out answers to complex questions. The expert reigns under such conditions (Aronowitz 2000). At the start of a new century, Weber’s famous predictions about the basis of authority resting in legal-rational bureaucracy appears to be confirmed. However, the seemingly limitless implications of technology also produce a strong reaction.

The Limits of Technology

The impact of technology on what it means to be human is another interesting development. If a tune whistled can be scored into a symphony composition by software designed for this purpose, what becomes the definition of creativity? If food can be genetically designed, are designer humans not far behind? Just as the last threshold set of social and economical changes created the industrial revolu- tion (when there was an outburst of work in the arts and humanities that redefined much of the meaning of human in relation to industrialization), so too will there be a similar outpouring of fresh thinking about what it means to be human in the knowledge economy era.

Cultural Identity

If globalization is the wave of the future, it will produce a variety of counterreactions because human beings require community. Some (Huntington 1995) see clashes of civilizations looming between Islamic and Western societies. The Iranian revolution can be seen, for example, as a clash between the forces of economic modernity and traditional value systems. Tribal value clashes appear to be alive and well in the Balkans. We know that Eurocentric, white, and male images of what constitutes ideal citizenship in our K-16 educational institutions must be replaced, but with what? The themes of McGuffy’s Reader and Henry Adams’s Education of Henry Adams still reverberate in our cultural landscape. What should the role of the university be in forging new multicultural models of good citizenship in the future world where nation-states are no longer as sovereign as they once were? This is especially challenging for the American university, which will soon have 1 million international students in attendance in a society whose leaders presume to argue for an American version of universal values in a kind of twenty- first-century version of the manifest destiny. In other words, what value standards should the twenty-first-century American university aim for? This, of course, is a

THE ENVIRONMENT OF AMERICAN HIGHER EDUCATION 27

problem since the American university will presumably remain in a client relation- ship to state governments and the federal government. Can the American univer- sity develop such global norms and remain American? However, if the corporation of the future is to be increasingly multinational in design, perhaps corporate patrons will not be as nationalistic in the future. And private universities and col- leges with significant endowments will have some degree of freedom of movement because they will control the use of the profits on those resources. There are thorny issues facing the university if universities are to once again take their role as funda- mental critics of the existing society and cultural norms seriously. And if they do not, who will?

Notes 1. The economic term human capital is used because this article emphasizes the importance to society

and to the individual of the economic returns to education argument. For a representative treatment of the concept human capital, see Hicks (1965). The availability of physical or human capital limits employment and economic growth. Capital shortages can develop if current capacity has become obsolescent in relation to technology, market demand, or input costs (e.g., energy intensive machinery can be priced out of the mar- ket when oil prices rise). In the knowledge economy, the importance of human capital, the skill level of per- sonnel, begins to clearly take precedence over physical capital. And the human capital obtained through edu- cation investments can differ dramatically across nations and across racial/ethnic groups within a society. I employ human capital, in this article, as does the Chicago school of economists who have documented the returns to education; for example, the greater the amount of formal education, the greater the return to the individual in wages. See Hicks (1965) for the concept. Also, see Heller (2000) for illuminating essays on the relationship between access, cost, and accountability for a discussion of the “cost-disease” problem facing higher education. This article does not discuss the cost issue, which will become a more salient public policy issue itself in the coming decades in a way analogous to the health care cost debate. This article presents the case for measuring outcomes in undergraduate education. Without an understanding of the quality added by the instructor or the institution to student performance, one cannot assess the benefits and costs of produc- tivity enhancements.

2. This statement has profited from a number of general assessments of the current and projected status of American higher education. Among the most useful were Duderstadt (2000); Bowen and Shapiro (1998); Bogue and Apter (2000); Levine (1999); Tierney (1999); Ehrlich (2000); Coady (2000); Altbach, Berdahl, and Gumport (1998); Cole, Barber, and Graubard (1994), Koblik and Graubard (2000); and Lucas (1996). As noted, the goal here is to make a set of projections about the American university’s future based on assess- ment of the probable impact of the changed environment the university faces.

3. Comparative advantage refers to the unique characteristics that make an activity produced by group A of equal or greater value at a lower cost than the same activity produced by group B.

4. Of course, what determines the level of education is another matter. A central factor is the shift in fam- ily structure. The absence of one parent matters enormously, and today about 37 percent of American chil- dren live in single-parent households (see Keller 1999-2000).

5. Figures 2 through 4 present single point projections for the next fifteen years. However, in a just com- pleted study of the Texas higher education system (Benjamin et al. 2000), the probability of a future dramatic participation gap in postsecondary education between Hispanics and African Americans versus non-Hispanic whites and Asian Americans is confirmed using a multidimensional modeling approach. See also Park and Lempert (1998) for further support of the participation gap thesis based on data from California analyzed with a multidimensional approach.

6. All the data come from the National Science Foundation’s CASPAR database. These data reflect all awards of R&D funding to specific institutions by all federal agencies. The database includes only R&D funds; it excludes all funds for training, public service, demonstration projects, clinical trials, and departmen-

28 THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY

tal research not separately budgeted. In addition, the data are limited to the sciences and engineering. Thus, no data are collected on such fields as education, law, humanities, music, the arts, physical education, and library sciences.

The nine disciplines within the sciences and engineering for which the federal government has funded R&D during the twenty-eight-year period are as follows: engineering (includes aerospace, chemical, civil, electrical, mechanical, materials, industrial, and other engineering), geological sciences (includes atmo- spheric, earth, oceanography, and other sciences), interdisciplinary and other sciences, life sciences exclud- ing medical sciences (includes agricultural, biological, and other life sciences), mathematics and computer sciences (includes mathematics and statistics, computer sciences), medical sciences, physical sciences (includes astronomy, chemistry, physics, and other physical sciences), psychology, social sciences (includes economics, political science and public administration, sociology, anthropology, linguistics, history of sci- ence, area and ethnic studies, and other social sciences) (Guess and Carroll 1997).

7. This section benefited from ideas developed with Richard Hersh and Stephen Klein. For a more com- plete application of these ideas, see the article by Benjamin et al. (2002) in Peer Review.

8. Because of the complexity surrounding the value-added concept, it is useful to identify the key terms, the frame of reference, and question. One further goal might be to compare the value added to students in institution A with similar students in institution B. One may focus on development of comparisons over time in which faculty can find useful cues for the improvement of their courses and academic programs within a particular institution. One further goal might be to compare the value added to students in institution A with similar students in institution B. Additional possible frames of reference are the individual student, the stu- dents aggregated in a class, a major, or an entire junior- or senior-year population. In every case, the answer to the question of what is the purpose of the measurement of value added is critical. The reason the frame of ref- erence is critical is because the question to what use the tests should be put must be answered. These are questions that will require much attention by institutions (administration and faculty) participating in the research program envisaged.

9. Moreover, administering assessment tests on the Internet will give students, teachers, and parents real-time feedback on how well the student is doing—thus course corrections can be made to improve as soon as possible; assessment becomes diagnostic.

References Altbach, Phillip G., Robert Berdahl, and Patricia Gumport, eds. 1998. American higher education in the

twenty-first century. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. Aronowitz, Stanley. 2000. The knowledge factory: Dismantling the corporate university and creating true

higher learning. Boston: Beacon. Benjamin, Roger. 1980. The limits of politics: Collective goods and political change in postindustrial societies.

Chicago: University of Chicago Press. . 1982. The historical nature of social scientific knowledge: The case of comparative political inquiry.

In Strategies of political inquiry, edited by Elinor Ostrom, 69-98. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage. Benjamin, Roger, and Stephen J. Carroll. 1997. The challenge of the changed environment in higher educa-

tion. In The responsive university, edited by William Tierney, 92-119. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Univer- sity Press.

Benjamin, Roger, Stephen Carroll, James Dewar, Robert Lempert, and Sue Stockly. 2000. Achieving the Texas higher education vision. DRU-2305-CAE. Santa Monica, CA: RAND.

Benjamin, Roger, Marc Chun, Richard H. Hersh, and Stephen Klein. 2002. Value added assessment of lib- eral education. Peer Review 4 (2/3).

Benjamin, Roger, and Raymond Duvall. 1985. The capitalist state in context. In The democratic state, edited by Roger Benjamin and Stephen Elkin, 19-58. Lawrence: University Press of Kansas.

Bogue, B. Grady, and Jeffrey Apter, eds. 2000. Exploring the heritage of American higher education: The evo- lution of philosophy and policy. Phoenix, AZ: Oryx.

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Coady, Tony, ed. 2000. Why universities matter: A conversation about values, means, and directions. St. Leo- nards, Australia: Allen & Unwin.

Cole, Jonathan R., Elinor G. Barber, and Stephen R. Graubard, eds. 1994. The research university in a time of discontent. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

Commission on National Investment in Higher Education. 1997. Breaking the social contract: The fiscal cri- sis in higher education. Washington, DC: Commission on National Investment in Higher Education.

Duderstadt, James J. 2000. A university for the 21st century. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Ehrlich, Thomas. 2000. Civic responsibility and higher education. Phoenix, AZ: Oryx. Frankfurter, Felix. 1948. In appreciation of Alfred North Whitehead. Letter to the editor. New York Times, 8

January. Gill, Brian. 2000. The governance of the City University of New York. Santa Monica, CA: RAND. Guess, Gretchen, and Stephen Carroll. 1997. Patterns of federal support for R&D: 1973-1996. DRU-1598-

IET. Santa Monica, CA: RAND. Held, David. 1989. Political theory and the modern state. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. Heller, Donald, ed. 2000. The states and public higher education policy. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Univer-

sity Press. Hicks, J. R. 1965. Capital and growth. London: Oxford University Press. Hirsch, Werner Z., and Luc Weber, eds. 1999. Challenges facing higher education at the millennium. Wash-

ington, DC: American Council on Education/Oryx Press Series on Higher Education. Huntington, Samuel. 1995. The clash of civilizations. New York: Basic Books. Inglehart, Ronald. 1997. Modernization and post modernization: Cultural, economic, and political change in

43 societies. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Keller, George. 1999-2000. The emerging third stage. Higher Education Planning 28:1-7. Klein, Stephen, and Marie Orlando. 2000. CUNY’s testing program: Characteristics, results, and implica-

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30 THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY

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